Tech Talk for Wednesday March 30th 2022

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday March 30th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 19 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the March private employment report at 8:15 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 450,000. Actual was an increase of 455,000.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the updated fourth quarter U.S. annualized GDP report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was growth at a 7.1% rate versus growth at a previous 7.0% rate. Actual was growth at a 6.9% rate.

Lululemon advanced $12.19 to $356.16 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings. The company also offered positive guidance.

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Micron gained $3.19 to $85.24 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. The company also offered positive guidance for fiscal third quarter results.

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Dollarama (DOL Cdn$68.72) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenues and earnings. The company also raised its dividend.

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Procter & Gamble dropped $2.01 to $153.45 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral.

EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2022/03/29/stock-market-outlook-for-march-30-2022/

Headline reads “While a number of points on the yield curve are inverting, typically you need to see broad participation in the flattening of the curve for it to be an accurate predictor of a recession in the year ahead”.

Currency Trends

Seasonal influences by the U.S. Dollar Index have a history of peaking in the first week of April.

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Technical weakness yesterday by the U.S. Dollar and its related ETF: UUP suggests that an intermediate peak in line with seasonal patterns is developing on schedule this year.

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Conversely, seasonal pattern by the Canadian Dollar relative to the U.S. Dollar Index is favourable from the middle of March to at least mid-July and frequently to mid-October. See seasonality chart on the Canadian Dollar at https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-dollar-forex-fxcad-seasonal-chart. Recovery by the Canadian Dollar during the past two weeks suggests that the Canadian Dollar is closely following its seasonal pattern this year.

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Technical Notes released yesterday at

StockTwits.com@EquityClock

Is the rollover in the net new highs in this market and the stalling of the near-term trend of the advance-decline line signal that the mean-reversion rally is fading? equityclock.com/2022/03/28/… $NYA $STUDY $SPX

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S&P 500 SPDRs $SPY moved above intermediate resistance at $456.70

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S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF $RSP moved above intermediate resistance at 159.79

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MidCap SPDRs $MDY moved above $499.37 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Russell 2000 iShares $IWM moved above $208.64 completing a double bottom pattern.

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U.S. Real Estate iShares $IYR moved above intermediate resistance at $107.26

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Medical Devices iShares $IHI moved above $60.40 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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S&P Semiconductor SPDRs $XSD moved above $215.17 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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A wide variety of S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks moved above intermediate resistance this morning including $CMCSA $MDT $AAPL $ADI $MCHP $ORCL

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Microsoft $MSFT a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $314.47 resuming an intermediate uptrend

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Costco $COST a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $570.62 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Gold and silver ETNs $GLD $SLV moved below support levels setting short term double top patterns. Related equities including $AEM.CA $FNV.CA and $HL also completed double top patterns.

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TSX Gold iShares $XGD.CA moved below $20.91 completing a double top pattern.

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Grain prices also under technical pressure. $WEAT moved below $9.75 completing a double top pattern.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 29th 2022

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 29th 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer gained another 11.42 to 75.75 yesterday. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.

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The long term Barometer gained another 6.21 to 60.52 yesterday. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Trend remains up.

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer added 5.63 to 73.59 yesterday. It remains Overbought.

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The long term Barometer added 1.73 to 65.37 yesterday. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.




4 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday March 30th 2022”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Re: IWM – Fundamentals for small caps are negative relative to large caps in a rising interest rate environment.
    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/interest-rate-hikes-likely-to-sting-already-suffering-small-cap-stocks-68821447

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    AAV – Many thanks to TechTalk for that write-up on Monday. On Friday Raymond James slapped strong buys on AAV and TOU with quite optimistic price targets

  3. Bman/Van Says:

    Moved out of my gassy stocks last Oct to switch into oil given we are in a energy crisis (not putting enough money into sustaining the production we have). Either option (gas or oil) has proven a great investment short term. Also, the investment houses have been raising earning estimates for the sector since the start of the year so yes the sector looks relatively cheap if long term oil is $100.

  4. Dave/AB Says:

    Bman/Van

    I agree. Not sure if you follow Eric Nuttall on Twitter. He provided a chart that show inventory being drawn down. Very interesting where he see and how he values a few of the juniors.

    https://twitter.com/ericnuttall/status/1509182261551316994?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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