Pre-opening Comments for Friday April 1st
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 15 points in pre-opening trade.
U.S. equity index futures eased slightly following release of the March Employment Report. March Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday was expected to increase 486,000 versus an upwardly revised gain of 750,000 in February. Actual was an increase of 431,000.March Unemployment Rate was expected to slip to 3.7% from 3.8% in February. Actual was a drop to 3.6%. March Average Hourly Earnings were expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.6% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, March Average Hourly Earnings was expected to increase 5.5% versus a gain of 5.1% in February. Actual was an increase of 5.6%.
Gamestop advanced $26.36 to $192.94 on news that the company is planning a stock split.
Wellgreens Boots slipped $0.05 to $44.72 after Truist lowered its target price from $58 to $50
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/clip_image0021.png "clip_image002[1]")
Blackberry dropped $0.28 to US$7.18 after reporting lower than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenues.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads, “S&P 500 Index has gained 2.4%, on average, in the month of April with 80% of periods seeing gains in the past two decades”.
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/03/31/stock-market-outlook-for-april-1-2022/
Technical Notes released yesterday at
Demand for petroleum products has fallen sharply since the middle of February as the high cost of fuel forces consumers to reconsider their driving habits. equityclock.com/2022/03/30/… $STUDY $MACRO $XLE $XOP $IYE $VDE $USO $UGA $CL_F $RB_F
A significant sign of spring has arrived with the first injection to Natural Gas stockpiles of the year. The change in inventories has been trending firmly below average all year, conducive to the rise in the price of the commodity. $UNG $UNL $NG_F $UGAZ $DGAZ #NATGAS
Natural gas ETN $UNG moved above $19.50 extending an intermediate uptrend. Weekly storage report released at 10:30 AM EDT was in line with consensus.
Vale $VALE one of the world’s largest base metals producers moved above $20.23 to an 11 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Imperial Oil $IMO.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$60.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to June 2nd. If a subscriber to EquityClock, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/imperial-oil-limited-tseimo-seasonal-chart
Fortis $FTS.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above $61.74 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Paychex $PAYX a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $138.14 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Kinder Morgan $KMI an S&P 100 stock moved above $19.15 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Waste Connections $WCN.CA moved above $175.86 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Algonquin Power $AQN.CA a TSX 60 stock moved above $19.52 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Lowe’s $LOW moved below $206.24 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Citigroup $C an S&P 500 stock moved below $55.83 extending an intermediate downtrend. Responding to the narrowing of interest rate spreads.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 31st 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 31st 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 31st 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 6.61 to 62.53 yesterday. It remains Overbought, but showing short term signs of rolling over.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.01 to 53.91 yesterday. It remains Neutral and showing short term signs of rolling over.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 3.34 to 68.40 yesterday. It remains Overbought and showing short term signs of rolling over.
The long term Barometer dropped 3.32 to 63.64 yesterday. It remains Overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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April 1st, 2022 at 12:18 pm
The U.S. two year treasury yield is now well above the ten year treasury yield which projects a recession ahead. No surprise as the over extended stock market charts and soaring housing market charts and interest rates spiking up are all typical just ahead of a recession.
April 1st, 2022 at 6:17 pm
Ron/BC
Yes, the yield curve has inverted, but as yet is not pronounced. The question now is the duration before the manure hits the fan. History shows that it can be anywhere from 3 to 24 mths, with 6 to 18 mths most likely. I expect it to be sooner rather than later and also more severe as the FED has never been farther from the curve. If we have one more manufactured leg up be sure to money off the table, so we can all return to fight another day. And it’s not just US monetary policy. Canada’s policy makes grown people weep or soon will.
April 1st, 2022 at 6:43 pm
DutchCanuck
I feel the most for all those happy families that bought 1+million dollar homes that aren’t worth half of that. And the big variable rate mortgages they took out to complete the deal. They will be getting their heads handed to them as rates spike up and will cause a lot of break ups both financially and personally.
April 3rd, 2022 at 1:51 pm
Here is a line chart of IWM. Note the significance of 210 that price bounced off of many times. Price broke above its downtrendline and had a nose poke above this 210 resistance level & 200ema and pulled back to the February highs of 206 and then bounced back Friday close to the high of the day. “IF” price can rally over this 210-211 high point it would rally sharply from there as this is an explosive chart pattern. If it can’t do this price is likely to roll over and back down again. This is a chart pattern worth watching for a sharp move.
The precious metal stock ETFs are also in a similar chart pattern.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03472825303&a=801703941
April 3rd, 2022 at 2:12 pm
Ron/BC,
Speaking of explosive chart patterns, here is one I have been watching for a long time. I traded this in 2020 but let it go too soon. I couldn’t believe how high the momentum could take it. Since the blow off to 174.74 top in early 2021, I have been waiting (patiently) for a possible low. 118 seems like an important level. If it can break out above ~ 98, the down trending 200EMA ~ 109.47 seems like a possible first target on it its way to 118.
https://schrts.co/JiZCTewe
April 3rd, 2022 at 4:13 pm
Paula
Re:#5
Yes that is a similar pattern. I’m seeing a lot of those recently. All we need now is some bullish b.s. story to get things going. And there is always a story to explain it all away…………….