Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 13th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 54 points in pre-opening trade.
Twitter dropped $7.07 to $38.03 after Elon Musk announced that his offer to acquire the company for $44 billion is “Temporarily on hold”.
![clip_image001[3]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0013.png "clip_image001[3]")
UPS slipped $0.23 to $176.90 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral.
![clip_image002[3]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0023.png "clip_image002[3]")
Affirm Holdings advanced $6.79 to $24.83 after reporting a smaller than consensus quarterly loss.
![clip_image003[3]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0033.png "clip_image003[3]")
Occidental Petroleum gained $1.33 to $60.60 on news that Berkshire Hathaway has increased its interest in the company to 15.3% of outstanding shares.
![clip_image004[3]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0043.png "clip_image004[3]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Indications are materializing that the market is preparing itself to rally”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/05/12/stock-market-outlook-for-may-13-2022/
Technical Notes for yesterday
Europe iShares $IEV moved below $44.33 extending an intermediate downtrend.
India ETF $PIN moved below $23.32 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Solar iShares $TAN moved below $56.08 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Junior Gold ETF $GDXJ moved below $36.55 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Equal Weight Base Metals ETF $ZMT.TO moved below Cdn$49.61 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Uranium ETF $URA moved below $18.71 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Twitter $TWTR moved below $45.00 completing a double top pattern.
American Express $AXP a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $155.28 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Moderna $MRNA a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $122.01 extending an intermediate downtrend.
United Parcel Services $UPS an S&P 100 stock moved below $174.99 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Cadence Design $CDNS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $133.10 extending an intermediate downtrend.
KLA Tencor $KLAC a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $700.00 extending an intermediate downtrend.
QualComm $QCOM a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $130.66 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Oracle $ORCL an S&P 100 stock moved below $69.96 extending an intermediate downtrend.
General Dynamics $GD an S&P 100 stock moved below $223.20 completing a double top pattern.
CGI Group $GIB a TSX 60 stock moved below US$77.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
ManuLife $MFC.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$24.48 completing a double top pattern following release of lower than consensus first quarter results.
BCE $BCE a TSX 60 stock moved below $67.43 and $67.38 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 12th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 12th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 12th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0011-8.png "clip_image001[1]")
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.60 to 16.83 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0021-7.png "clip_image002[1]")
The long term Barometer was unchanged at 29.66 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0031-8.png "clip_image003[1]")
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.13 to 14.54 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/clip_image0041-3.png "clip_image004[1]")
The long term trend dropped another 2.04 to 29.52 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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May 13th, 2022 at 12:21 pm
Ron/BC
US$ breakout with major candle. Upside measurement from here could amount to 10-11%.
Covered my treasuries shorts yesterday. Added to cash position for now.
Good things come to those who wait and don’t panic.
Silly question- What was the last time you bought shares?
May 13th, 2022 at 12:23 pm
There’s the Friday the 13th bounce………………
Gotta love that U.S.$………….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59259098070&a=801028557
May 13th, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Agree Kam,
There is no need for me to trade bitcoin or ether,
if all I want to do is trade with a trend or against.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GBTC,ETHE,QBTC.TO,ETHH.TO,RIOT,MARA,BITO,BITI.TO,MSTR,HIVE,HUT.TO,MQ|D|0
Seeing that they are all selling off for weeks now, (directional)
it might be possible to make a couple dollars somewhere, somehow.
May 13th, 2022 at 2:13 pm
Dutchcanuck
Answer: a long time ago,lol……………Just not a believer.
I’d rather flip a condo every year or two……………no brainer and just too easy.
BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT, I am waiting to see blood in the streets type of a market and then put some of my RIF and TFSA cash into a few high quality dividend stocks or ETFs. Not going to chase anything. Meanwhile my cash doesn’t go bad I’ve found. And yes the U.S.$ is always a good hold.
An old neighbour of mine told me she’s down $10K to $20K so far this year. Nice lady too. Doesn’t deserve that but you jump into the fire you are bound to get burned.
May 13th, 2022 at 3:19 pm
Dutch,
(not investment advice, ok, just your opinion, ok?)
Did you ever look into split shares such as DFN.to / DFN.PR.A.to.
DFN.TO currently has a forward yield of 14.8%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dividend-15-split-corp-monthly-130000364.html
They seem to sell off hard whenever there is a big market drop, but then recover in a few mths, when there is no longer blood in the streets.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DFN.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39466597998
May 13th, 2022 at 6:58 pm
AMD
May 14th, 2022 at 6:46 pm
Thought I’d share this piece. Dave is often wrong but he does offer an interesting perspective with data to back up his thesis. Add Ron/bc technical analysis as an overlay and 3000 on SPX seems a plausible bottom. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-bear-market-is-already-in-its-third-inning-stay-calm-and-defensive-51652454842?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_4
May 15th, 2022 at 2:27 pm
Kingley
Interesting article and very believable. I see the 3000 level just happens to be at the long term uptrendline that started in 2009. And that uptrendline shows just how over extended the $SPX has become. I think the expression is “over exuberance” as Alan Greenspan once said. That line will be touched at some point even if price goes sideways later on. But price does has to come back to earth first.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91123533216&a=673066405
May 15th, 2022 at 3:17 pm
Re: #7&8:
I just can’t put a lot of credence in what the ‘Perma Bear’ David Rosenberg predicts. The scary thing is that even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
May 15th, 2022 at 3:42 pm
Still_Learning
Well even if you are right about doubting his observations, it does suggest caution with investing if nothing else. Nothing wrong with taking a 2nd look at one’s portfolio and intended purchases.