Tech Talk for Thursday May 19th 2022

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday May 19th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. At 7:30 AM EDT S&P 500 futures were down 34 points in pre-opening trade.

Several U.S. economic data points are scheduled for release this morning that could influence equity prices:

May Philly Fed Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to slip to 17.2 from 17.6 in April.

April U.S. Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT are expected to slip to 565.000 units from 577,000 units in March.

April Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EDT are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in March.

Cisco dropped $5.98 to $42.37after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues. The company also lowered guidance.

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Bath and Body Works plunged $2.44 to $40.50 after the company lowered earnings guidance.

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Synopsys advanced $11.43 to $284.00 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly revenues and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Headline reads “Treasury bond prices breaking their trends of lower-highs and lower-lows as the classic safe haven attracts demand amidst the equity selloff”. Following is the link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2022/05/18/stock-market-outlook-for-may-19-2022/

Technical Notes from yesterday

Coca Cola $KO a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $62.58 completing a double top pattern.

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Pepsico $PEP a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $165.27 completing a double top pattern.

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CVS Health $CVS an S&P 100 stock moved below $95.02 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Walgreens Boots $WBA a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $41.80 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Target $TGT an S&P 100 stock moved below $183.24 extending an intermediate downtrend. The company issued lower than consensus first quarter results.

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Costco $COST an S&P100 stock moved below $467.54 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Lululemon $LULU a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $278.00 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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PACCAR $PCAR a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $81.47 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 18th 2022

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 18th 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)

 

Links from Valued Providers

Ari Wald, Technical Analyst from Oppenheimer says “The bottom has not yet arrived”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46lzi82kezw

 

Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com notes in an interview with John O’Connell “Investors need to know this one key thing”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46lzi82kezw

 

Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com asks “Is Elon Musk repeating the mistakes of Henry Ford”?

Is Elon Musk Repeating the Mistakes of Henry Ford? – Uncommon Sense Investor

 

Greg Schnell comments on “How to discover a new rally”.

How to Discover a New Rally | Greg Schnell, CMT | Market Buzz (05.18.22) – YouTube

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer plunged 15.63 to 16.63 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Confirmation of a bottom has yet to arrive.

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The long term Barometer dropped 7.82 to a new recent low at 28.26. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.80 to 22.71 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Confirmation of a bottom has yet to arrive.

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The long term Barometer fell 3.22 to 34.06 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Confirmation of a bottom has yet to arrive.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.




6 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday May 19th 2022”

  1. bruce Says:

    the AAII survey this week has the bulls at 26.0% vs 24.3 last week…..historical average bullish is 38.0%….the bears are 50.4% vs 49.0 last week and historically average 30.5%…Is there anyone left to sell?…we’ll soon find out…..

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    Equity options expiry tomorrow may create some outsized volatility. Maybe we will see the final blowout of selling bringing in a bottom.
    50% retracement of the SPX rally from the Mar/20 low to the Jan/22 high is roughly 3500.

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Utilities – Have held up well in May with XLU up just slightly for the month. XLU was dragged down only 0.97% yesterday by the market. BCE has behaved exactly the same sideways for the month. It’s viewed as a safe place to hide. If the market does bottom however money might slowly rotate out of utilities to invest in relatively undervalued areas.

  4. RonBC Says:

    The Nasdaq $COMPQ has fallen 5000 points since the end of December/21. That’s 1000 pts per month on average. The Weekly Price is still about 4000 pts away from its long term uptrendline. BUTTTTTTTTTTTTT price is very oversold already and while there are no positive divergences of significance, price is likely to find a reason to rally soon enough. Perhaps just short covering if most of the big players decide to chase the short sellers.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14686942312&a=1092908250

  5. RonBC Says:

    Here is a chart of $SPX. A break below 3858 “OR” a rally above 4100 should see a fast sharp move in the direction of the break. Odds favour a break above 4100 but price is king and the cross over direction is most important.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84884467320&a=1131926615

  6. RonBC Says:

    AMD was mentioned on this site recently. Looking at the chart one can see price broke its uptrendline support and then formed a “”W” pattern with the top of the pattern right at the breakdown point of $99-$100. Price tried to clear and hold above this level today on a rally but typically failed to do so. Price needs to clear $100 and hold this level to expect a rally to and through $110. A pullback further below the “W” pattern would suggest a failure to succeed and would see much more selling. Note the volume on this stock recently. Big test right here. I guess this is where Option traders buy calls above $100 and puts below $83. I think they call it a Strangle but I haven’t traded Options for a very long time.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15962938123&a=1159758573

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