Tech Talk for Wednesday May 25th 2022

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday May 25th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 20 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the April Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.7% versus a gain of 0.8% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.6%. Excluding transportation orders, consensus for April Durable Goods Orders was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 1.2% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.3%.

Toll Brothers gained $1.43 to $45.97 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings

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Intuit advanced $10.53 to $369.50 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter earnings. The company also offered positive fourth quarter guidance.

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Agilent added $3.14 to $127.55 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter results.

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Wendy’s jumped $2.42 to $18.69 after Trian, a hedge fund announced that it is seeking a deal to enhance shareholder value.

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Bank of Montreal and Scotia Bank are expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. They also raised their quarterly dividend.

EquityClock’s Daily Comment

EquityClock says” Our average buy date to the technology sector has arrived, but will it prove to be correct?  Earnings from NVIDIA on Wednesday could be the tell”. Following is the link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2022/05/24/stock-market-outlook-for-may-25-2022/

 

Technical Notes for yesterday

Amazon $AMZN an S&P 100 stock moved below $2048.11 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Long term U.S. Treasury SPDRs iShares $TLT moved above $118.89 completing a short term double bottom pattern. Seasonal influences are favourable to August 28th. If a subscriber to www.EquityClock.com see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf-nasdtlt-seasonal-chart

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Xcel Energy $XEL a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $76.05 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable to June 26th. If a subscriber to www.EquityClock.com, see seasonality chart at https://charts.equityclock.com/xcel-energy-inc-nysexel-seasonal-chart

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Fortis $FTS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $64.58 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 24th 2022

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 24th 2022

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 24th 2021

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)

 

Links offered by valued investors

Tom Bowley says “A recession is at hand”.

A Recession is at Hand | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (05.24.22) – YouTube

 

Bruce Fraser summarizes “Anatomy of a bear market”.

Anatomy Of A Bear Market | Bruce Fraser | Your Daily Five (05.24.22) – YouTube

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer added 2.00 to 21.44 yesterday. It remains Oversold.

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The long term Barometer added 1.40 to 30.86 yesterday. It remains Oversold.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.44 to 22.81 yesterday. It remains Oversold.

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The long term Barometer added 3.07 to 37.28 yesterday. It remains Oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.




9 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday May 25th 2022”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Sign of bad market – Customers are getting daily messages from my broker to remember to settle margin calls on time.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    My favourite quote from BMO’s earnings release: “We are steadfast in our Purpose-driven commitments to a thriving economy, sustainable future and inclusive society,” Such syrupy pablum to make you feel good about BMO. The book of clichés that they haul out for usage each quarter just gets worse.
    Concerns about any kind of economic softness slowing down bank earnings seems to be put to rest for now with positive earnings on both sides of the border. Going forward I would keep an eye on CM being more at risk with its’ high concentration in the Canadian mortgage market. There’s a definite slow down in sales and therefore in mortgage lending.

  3. bruce Says:

    Larry
    the ZWB basket of Canadian covered calls banks currently pays a monthly div. of .11 cents…..with the banks raising their divs. it’s likely ZWB will move to .12 cents monthly or $1.44 annual which at $20.50 would be yielding 7%……hmmmm…….

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    Bruce – I have been mulling the banks for the past week. IMO they are a buy but my enthusiasm is muted. Earnings growth is quite modest. I would not buy a covered call ETF if you think share prices are rising. I would buy the calls.

  5. RonBC Says:

    Here is the DBC Commodity Fund ETF. Very bullish chart (Ascending Triangle) with price bumping up against $28.60 four times now. A clear break over this price level should see a rapid rally and price has been squeezed into a very tight range.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09621378393&a=950522196

  6. DM/ON Says:

    Re #5 RonBC
    Thank you for this posting. I held (painfully) USCI for several years and recently sold it for reasonable profit, after almost parabolic rise especially after Dec. 2021 (which was somewhat above my purchase price after rapid post pandemic rise). After your post I compared DBC, GSG, USCI and DJP and they all seem to follow similar pattern, not quite as clear as DBC. On the chart though USCI seems recently falling below rising trend-line (I’m wondering how technically significant that may be). Based on this web-site CRB index is “in SEASON” till early July. I’m wondering if all these commodity indicies will have last seasonal “hurray” to the all new level above and contribute to the “transitory inflation”. Personally I’ll probably just watch it from sidelines (too old not to be scared).

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    DM/ON

    Here is a Daily chart of USCI with DBC overlaid in dashed pink. They both track much the same way but USCI is showing a negative divergence on the last high meaning a loss of positive momentum. The uptrendline and 50 line on the RSI 21 are still positive so until you see $56 broken it looks good to me.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USCI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86123949609&a=1172832686

  8. DM/ON Says:

    Re: #7 Ron/BC
    Thank you for the USCI evaluation. I’ve just spotted “commodity super cycle” article

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-commodities-in-perfect-storm-says-erg-as-crisis-starts-super-cycle/

    that adds some “fundamentals” to “technicals” , so with already mentioned “seasonals” “perfect storm” label is somewhat affirmed. Perhaps position(s) in some of previously mentioned ETFs but in TFSA that survives owner without tax is worth consideration.

  9. RonBC Says:

    DM/ON

    Just keep in mind that seasonals are often accurate and helpful and technicals show trends and support and resistance but anything can and often does happen. Sooooooooooooo, as long as price holds above $56 all is well. A break below that line of support could throw everything else out the window and see price fall or track sideways.

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