Pre-opening Comments for Friday June 10th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 44 points in pre-opening trade.
U.S. equity index futures moved lower following release of the May Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. May U.S. Consumer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday was expected to increase 0.7% versus a gain of 0.3% in April. Actual was an increase of 1.0%. On a year-over-year basis May Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 8.3% versus a gain of 8.3% in April. Actual was an increase of 8.6%. Excluding food and energy, May Consumer Price Index was expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.6% in April. Actual was an increase of 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, May Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy was expected to increase 5.9% versus a gain of 6.2% in April. Actual was an increase of 6.0%.
The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.17 to US 78.37 cents following release of Canada’s May Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase in employment by 27,500 versus a gain of 15,300 in April. Actual was an increase of 39,800. Consensus for May Unemployment Rate was unchanged from April at 5.2%. Actual was a slip to 5.1%.
DocuSign plunged$18.15 to $69.00 after reporting less than consensus first quarter results. The company also lowered guidance.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/clip_image0011-7.png "clip_image001[1]")
Vail Resorts advanced $18.03 to $263.53 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results. The company also raised its dividend.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
StitchFix dropped $1.37 to $6.41 after reporting lower than consensus quarterly results.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/clip_image0031-6.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “While the fundamental backdrop still leans bullish for the price of Natural Gas, the period of seasonal weakness ahead for the commodity could take the commodity off of its positive trend”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/06/09/stock-market-outlook-for-june-10-2022/
Technical Notes for Yesterday
Soybean ETN $SOYB moved above $27.11 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Turkey ETF $TUR moved below $19.92 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Regeneron $REGN a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $597.76 setting an intermediate downtrend.
Intel $INTC a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $40.31 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Peloton $PTON a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $11.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Xcel Energy $XEL a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $71.02.
Nikkei Average moved above 28,338.81 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 9th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 9th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 9th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 14.28 to 24.00 yesterday. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.
The long term Barometer dropped 5.27 to 29.40 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.36 to 32.27 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer dropped 4.89 to 36.36 yesterday. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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June 10th, 2022 at 3:00 pm
Slowly but surely we are getting there……………….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40726079194&a=673066405
June 10th, 2022 at 3:02 pm
Ron/BC,
Interesting price action on the gold stocks today. Here is one of your charts I saved of GDX. The 50EMA is crossing below the 200EMA on this GDX chart but the price is moving above the 20EMA. This is one of the few green charts today.
https://schrts.co/vkDirNsB
June 10th, 2022 at 3:35 pm
Paula
It looks for some time now that we are going to hell in a handbasket. BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTT, it may be that I’m becoming more pessimistic. I do lean in that direction much of the time as it does save me from joining the herd over the cliff often enough. There will always be good buys now and again though looking at the charts but many of them will be short lived.
June 12th, 2022 at 1:37 am
Paula
Here is another Gold stock chart but of XGD.to. You can see it has been outperforming GDX since last October. It is set up nicely to breakout above the $19.44-$19.50 area. A breakout there should see price rally to $21. It’s one of the few markets looking “reasonably” bullish.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04695087981&a=673066137
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=XGD.TO
June 12th, 2022 at 2:54 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for the charts. It is curious that XGD is outperforming GDX since among the top ten holdings of GDX, seven are Canadian companies. Mind you the top holding at of GDX with ~ 16% allocation is NEM, a US company. On XGD, NEM is ~ 22% so maybe just trade NEM. It trade millions of shares a day and had a dividend yield over 3%. I think the FX might be messing with the ratio of XGD.TO:GDX.
I tried making a chart of NEM using your ratio chart and it looks like it might be breaking down relative to GDX. What do you think? Maybe you can correct my lines.
https://schrts.co/JBYchFJW
June 12th, 2022 at 3:28 pm
RE: #5
Paula,
XGD is in CAD and because USD is recently (last few days) strengthening (simultaneously with gold and miners reversal on Friday) XGD has greater increase. Rate of exchange plays quite a bit of role in valuing the stocks especially with the degree of volatility they recently have. I’m wondering if CAD vs USD somewhat increases on Monday while miners idle, may produce little better opportunity to buy XGD, then, expecting USD continues its bias, but gold and miners continue to strengthen as well thus preserving our Canadian portfolio value.
I guess, we’ll see.
June 12th, 2022 at 3:39 pm
DM/ON
Thanks for your comments. I thought FX might be the issue with the ratio chart of XGD.TO:GDX but having trouble wrapping my head around it. Ron/BC shows XGD outperforming since last October, so it’s not a short term thing. USD has been strengthening over that time.
https://schrts.co/wxFBKgVw
June 12th, 2022 at 6:31 pm
Paula
Here is a 2 year Daily chart of NEM with GDX and XGD.to overlaid in blue and orange. Note how well both overlays stick together as they are both a combination of Gold stocks so will act far more radically than the single long term stock of NEM. So far more price action with the ETFs.
The seasonal trend 2nd chart shows GDX outperforming NEM ahead but I think it will always outperform NEM due to the structure of the ETFs.
NEM also bounced off of support with a high close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75798596863&a=673066208
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=NEM&compare=gdx
June 12th, 2022 at 6:38 pm
Paula
The chart in #8 shows NEM outperforming GDX and XGD.to over that time frame But you have to keep in mind NEM has been in a steady uptrend the entire time with higher highs and the two ETFs have just been trading sideways with stronger sell offs. So NEM will look to be a better buy.
June 12th, 2022 at 7:38 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks for all your input.Very helpful.
As usual lots to think about.
June 12th, 2022 at 8:14 pm
Paula
I think I’ll see what XGD.to does tomorrow to see if it can breakout over resistance. Unfortunately I live in Pacific Time so am late the the stock party all the time.
June 12th, 2022 at 9:59 pm
re: #7
The value of the US Dollar is normally based on a basket of six foreign currencies (Euro, Yen, Pound Sterling, Cdn Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc. According to Wikipedia, in this basket the Euro makes up 57.6% and Canada 9.1%. Assuming the USD chart in Stockcharts reflects this convention it is not a good comparison directly to the Cdn Dollar.
A better chart for portfolios valued in Cdn Dollars may be the chart of the $USDCAD pairs trade. I have attached the weekly Stockchart. It shows that the value of the USD has been in a tight trading range relative to the Cdn Dollar for nearly a year.
https://schrts.co/jHrfvvnD
June 12th, 2022 at 10:00 pm
Ron/BC,
I used to wonder if you got up really early to see the open but then I realized that you were not that interested. LOL
June 12th, 2022 at 10:04 pm
Fishfat,
Re # 12.
Thanks for the different perspective.
June 12th, 2022 at 11:08 pm
Paula
Long ago I used to get up at the crack of dawn to see the open and perhaps make a trade until as time went on I realized the markets tend to get an explosive open from all the eager beavers trying to get a jump on things. Not a good bunch to follow. I can’t recall the analyst’s name but someone I respected then said, “The amateur’s determine the open and the professionals determine the close.” That I can believe. So get up when I get up now, lol. Right now the markets are getting their butts kicked……….again……………….