Pre-opening Comments for Thursday July 7th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 12 points in pre-opening trade.
U.S. equity index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the U.S. May Trade Deficit report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a deficit of $84.7 billion versus a deficit of $87.10 billion in April. Actual was a deficit of $85.5 billion.
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at US76.91 cents following release of Canada’s May Merchandise Trade report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a surplus of $2.20 billion versus a revised surplus of $2.20 billion in April. Actual was a surplus of $5.3 billion
Seagen added 7.87 to $183.00 on news that Merck is negotiating a possible takeover of the company at a cost estimated at $40 billion.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0011-3.png "clip_image001[1]")
Game Stock advanced $10.46 to $127.89 after the company announced a four for one stock split.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/clip_image0021-2.png "clip_image002[1]")
Bed Bath & Beyond gained $0.31 to $4.78 following release of an insider purchase filing.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “While May’s report on Job Openings and Labor Turnover continued to indicate that openings remain plentiful, there are elements within that are consistent with the run-up to an economic recession”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/07/06/stock-market-outlook-for-july-7-2022/
Response to FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM EDT
U.S. equity indices moved higher.
The U.S. Dollar was virtually unchanged.
Long term bond prices dipped slightly
Gold and gold equity prices recovered from deeply oversold levels.
Technical Notes Yesterday
Costco $COST a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $484.24 setting an intermediate uptrend.
O’Reilly Automotive $ORLY a NASD 100 stock moved above $652.30 setting an intermediate uptrend.
Thomson Reuters $TRI.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $137.07 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Canadian National Railway $CNR.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above intermediate resistance at $148.32
Loblaw Companies $L.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $119.15 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Dollarama $DOL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $76.80 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Waste Connections $WCN.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above intermediate resistance at $164.75.
Gold stocks continue to respond to lower gold and silver prices. Agnico-Eagle, a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$57.67 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 6th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 6th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 6th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
Links offered by valued providers
Link from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
Q3 Equity Strategy Outlook – Uncommon Sense Investor
Greg Schnell is “Looking for rotation”
Looking for Rotation | Greg Schnell, CMT | Your Daily Five (07.06.22) – YouTube
David Keller discusses “Decent bounce for Tech and Consumer stocks”
Decent Bounce for Tech and Consumer | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (07.05.22) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.20 to 26.80 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend is up.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.80 to 21.60 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.57 to 17.99 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.84 to 22.18 yesterday. It remains Oversold.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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July 7th, 2022 at 9:16 am
the AAII bulls dropped again this past week to 19.4% from 22.8…..the bears are at 52.8% up from 46.7 previously…….they must be loaded with cash or is the public saying one thing and doing something else?….
July 7th, 2022 at 7:43 pm
As long as Interest Rates are rising the Markets will continue to struggle….In my trading accounts, I’ve been in cash instruments (Money Markets ETFs, etc.) since sometime in May, yields are growing as rates rise, unit prices stay the same more or less…a penny here and there. Short term money is outperforming the markets anyway. No loss of capital, 100% safety and a growing yield, what’s not to like?
In my opinion, pointless to trade when the Markets are working against me. I shorted for a while did OK, and did some short term swing trades for the relief rallies for a few days, here and there, but nothing spectacular…hardly worth the trouble, so sometime in May I gave up. Markets not really logical, Charts do not help, no place to hide in equities, volatility is too high. Better to stand aside and wait for the final “Capitulation Low”, which will come eventually, to punctuate the end of the Bear Market. I’ve seen all this before. I’m just darn too lazy…lol. I like a sure thing, I can wait. This is a classic Bear Market, always grinding lower and lower, with the occasional relief rally.
In 2020, I bought the COVID Correction, on heavy margin, and the recovery, did very well, over a 400% net gain over 14 months. I am not giving it back. Cashed out late last August, like I usually do. My 40 years experience have taught me that usually after the Labour Day week-end, the markets sell-off as the big boys are back at their desks, especially true if the Summer has been Bullish. If I’m occasionally wrong, I can always buy back, but at least I booked some nice profits that I get to keep. Nothing like cleaning house once in a while. I bought back some last Fall, but they were different names, lots of O&G. I could see the strength in the market, and anyway, O&G always outperform at the top of the economic and market cycles anyway. No secret.
Some pundits claim that the 2020 COVID correction was a Bear market, but I wouldn’t say so…we dropped violently very fast, were at the bottom for a only a week, with a very nice long Hammer CandleStick to punctuate the low, and then the markets recovered up from there….a great buying opportunity. A temporary irrational Freak-Out moment. Got to love those. A no brainer.
We will see another great buying opportunity soon when the Fed and BOC finish their rate hikes, whenever that is. Right now, inflation is out of control, accelerating rather than decelerating, and the Fed nearly always over shoot, so we will get a Recession. No soft-Landing, very rare. We will see if next week BOC raise .75 basis points or 100 as some are calling for. In any case, the BOC and the FED are panicking, always a clue for catastrophic results.
In TFSA, same as usual, re-investing dividends as they come in, twice a month. Adding about 25% to each of my 50 plus names to book value, all equal weight, as I move along. Almost done, just a couple more to do. Dollar cost averaging in that account. Cashflow has been very good. Hard to calculate as I add the maximum very year, but it’s all the same names as I have in my RRSP, so that I can calculate easily since I have been retired for 11 years and no new money has been added there. This year over last year, my RRSP dividends grew by 9.3% so far, and the year is not yet finished. Beats inflation. When was the last time anybody got a 9.3% raise in salary?….lol..can’t beat it. Cap gains come and go, but the important thing is the dividend cash flow….with 50 plus names, equal weight, it’s secure. I’ll be RRIFing soon, so I have been taking most of my RRSP dividend cash flow out, to spend on various things and to top up my TFSA.
Anyway, that’s all I have to say, will be back when things get interesting.