Pre-opening Comments for Thursday August 11th
U.S equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 22 points in pre-opening trade.
U.S. equity index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the July U.S. Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 1.1% in June. Actual was a drop of 0.5% . On a year-over-year basis consensus was an increase of 10.3% versus a gain of 11.3% in June. Actual was a gain of 9.8%. Excluding food and energy, consensus was a gain of 0.4% versus an increase of 0.4% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, consensus was an increase of 7.6% versus a gain of 8.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 7.6%.
Walt Disney gained $7.68 to $120.11 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0011-6.png "clip_image001[1]")
Canada Goose added $1.30 to $28.95 after predicting higher second quarter revenues.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0021-7.png "clip_image002[1]")
Six Flags dropped $3.09 to $22.63 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0031-5.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “As levels of resistance are broken, the bearish argument for the market becomes weaker and weaker”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/08/10/stock-market-outlook-for-august-11-2022/
Technical Notes for yesterday
Dow Jones Industrial Average moved above 33,272.34 and Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs $DIA moved above $332.04 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Industrial SPDRs $XLI moved above $96.91 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Financial services ETFs led the advance yesterday following release of the July CPI report. $KBE moved above $49.72, $KRE moved above $64.67 and $IAK moved above $84.54 extending intermediate uptrends
Financial services stocks dominated the list of big cap equities moving higher:
American Express $AXP moved above $160.88 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Citigroup $C moved above intermediate resistance at $53.72.
Bank of New York Mellon moved above $440.3 completing a base building pattern
Goldman Sachs moved above intermediate resistance at $345.24
JP Morgan moved above $118.24 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern
MetLife moved above intermediate resistance at $64.67
Dow Chemical $DOW an S&P 100 stock moved above $53.79 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Brookfield Asset Management $BAM.A.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $65.84 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Manulife Financial $MFC.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $23.76 completing a double bottom pattern.
Canadian Tire $CTC.A.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $171.73 extending an intermediate uptrend.
SNC Lavalin $SNC.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above intermediate resistance at $26.07 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 10th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 10th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 10th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 9.60 to 82.40 yesterday. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 6.40 to 42.00 yesterday. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 9.24 to 67.23 yesterday. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 3.78 to 40.75 yesterday. It changed from Oversold to Neutral on a move above 40.00. Trend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
|
|
August 11th, 2022 at 6:57 am
Ron/BC
RE#14 yesterday
Thanks for the 40+ year perspective.
August 11th, 2022 at 7:39 am
Hi Ron & Paula
Thank you for sharing part of your due diligence with us. I look to the USD during the next couple of months. Seems to always move higher.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24USD
August 11th, 2022 at 9:13 am
the AAII bulls this week were 32.2% vs 30.6% previously…the bears are 36.7% vs 38.9%…again their numbers are not providing us as a profitable contrary indicator…..
August 11th, 2022 at 9:22 am
Re 13 Yesterday – Hi Paula – Yes you picked the same two stocks I have and if you hold the calls you get the special div because they adjust your strike price down by the same amount. That means you are leveraging the amount of the dividend.
August 11th, 2022 at 10:54 am
SPX RSI is the most overbought since November and we are about to meet the 200day MA and I guess close to RON/BC’s downtrend resistance line. This is the perfect place for the market to stall around 4300 in the next couple of trading sessions.
August 11th, 2022 at 1:05 pm
My biggest concern ahead is how far the $TSX and $SPX and $COMP are above their long term uptrendlines. They show a typical over extended rally that stalled out but are still up in the sky relative to their trends. Typically what occurs after this pattern is at the very least a sideways to lower trend or a zig zag lower over time until that trendline is touched.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89030000927&a=1093149596
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10989302272&a=673066405
And here is the $Comp
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81301990645&a=1092908250
August 11th, 2022 at 2:54 pm
The Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF:IWM has been outperforming the $SPX and the $COMP for awhile now. Not something you read much about………….
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68051512409&listNum=1&a=1225889154
August 11th, 2022 at 3:50 pm
Maybe that was it for the rally off the June low. I sold my trading position in XBI today.
https://schrts.co/TqDagHBq
August 11th, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks for posting those long term charts. They are good for perspective. Like your view on the USD, the US (and Canadian) markets may be the “cleanest shirt in the laundry hamper”. Where are people, meaning institutional investors, going to put the money that they are mandated to invest? Just a thought.
August 11th, 2022 at 4:10 pm
Larry,
Re #4. Thanks for the reply. Maybe you missed it but I have retired from trading options for over 20 years. I don’t hold CNQ calls, just a small stock positon.
Was that you calling in to ask David Burrows about CNQ on Market Call today?
August 11th, 2022 at 5:04 pm
Re 7. Small cap outperformance is indicative of confidence in economic growth because smaller companies are less resilient to economic disruption and interest rate hikes yet able to take advantage of economic expansion. It’s suggestive that the late June bottom was the bottom though someone could make the case it is a short-term recovery from being extremely oversold.
While we will likely see some sideways consolidation and maybe a couple of steps back IMO risk is coming to the upside due to everyone being excessively risk off. Inflation peaked and we will likely see another low inflation figure for August that will be released Sep 13th. We could see a lot of buying after a soft month between now and then.
BIR – Anyone interested in nat gas companies should watch the CEO interview attached below.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/we-plan-to-be-debt-free-by-q4-with-lots-of-excess-cash-for-dividends-birchcliff-energy-ceo~2500212
August 11th, 2022 at 5:33 pm
Re 10 – Paula someone’s going to do a voice print analysis and figure out my full identity and location. I am a David Burrows fan. I view his weekly videos on the Barometer website though they are somewhat repetitive and you view 40min to get 2 min of new information. He looks at economic history like no one else on BNN. His post WWII inflationary comparison was great.