Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday August 17th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 37 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the U.S. July Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 1.0% in June. Actual was unchanged. Excluding auto sales, consensus was a slip of 0.1% versus a gain of 1.0% in June. Actual was a gain of 0.4%.
Lowe’s gained $2.42 to 216.54 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0011-9.png "clip_image001[1]")
Target dropped $5.72 to $174.47 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0021-12.png "clip_image002[1]")
Walmart slipped $1.24 to $138.13 despite increases in target price announced by MKM Partners, Deutsche Bank and Truist.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0031-8.png "clip_image003[1]")
Krispy Kreme dropped $1.85 to $12.67 after reporting less than consensus quarterly revenues and earnings.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0041-9.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The average factory shutdown period in July was much tamer than average, but our concern for the manufacturing economy may be more appropriately placed with data to be released in the months ahead”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/08/16/stock-market-outlook-for-august-17-2022/
Technical Notes for yesterday
Walmart $WMT a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $133.65 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Travelers $TRV a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above intermediate resistance at $173.21.
McDonalds $MCD a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $265.46 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Colgate Palmolive $CL an S&P 100 stock moved above intermediate resistance at $81.52
Take Two $TTWO a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $133.79 and $134.82 completing a base building pattern.
O’Reilly Automotive $ORLY a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $748.68 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
BCE $BCE a TSX 60 stock moved above $64.96 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Canadian Pacific $CP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above $105.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 16th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 16th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 16th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Link from valued provider
Tom Bowley discusses “How Wall Street Thieves Steal Your Money”.
How Wall Street Thieves Steal Your Money | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (08.16.22) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 1.00 to 92.00 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 2.40 to 51.20 yesterday. It remains Neutral. Trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.42 to 73.53 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 0.42 to 46.22 yesterday. It remains Neutral. Trend remains up.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 17th, 2022 at 8:30 am
Tech Talk – I really value your website. Could you update your commodity trends table on Nat Gas? Anything making new highs is not in a downtrend.
August 17th, 2022 at 1:10 pm
The $SPX is bumping up against its downtrendline and is very overbought in all measurements. A pullback to 4177 support would be typical and “might” be the place to get long.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28508995573&a=939923011
August 17th, 2022 at 1:22 pm
The $TSX has been under performing the $SPX for 13 years now and is very overbought as well.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89030000927&a=1093149596
August 17th, 2022 at 1:43 pm
Here is a chart of the major U.S.Gold Stock ETF:GDX. This and XGD.to on the $TSX can be a great chart to trade but for some time now has been a disappointment regardless of other factors.
If you click on SEASONALITY below it shows it’s typical performance for each month and September is the worst month of the year. That might be the time to get long Gold stocks on a reversal in late September if and when the chart pattern reverses back to up again.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94396754565&a=1055719642
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96734026834&a=945231435
August 17th, 2022 at 9:13 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks for all these chart especially the GDX – haven’t talked about that lately. It is so erratic, just when you think it has started an up trend, no, down it goes. Your modified MACD seems to be a good indicator to watch for an opportunity. Maybe more patience (than I have) is required.
August 17th, 2022 at 10:41 pm
Paula
Yes, I like that Modified MACD 50,200,9 as it does have a good track record of catching a price high. I haven’t tried it with all types of markets but so far it has been impressive and nothing to ignore. I don’t mind exiting a position anyways as I never feel I’ve missed anything. Much like going fishing. Don’t have to catch anything to have a nice day. But the GDX can drive you crazy even just using charts. I prefer to trade the XGD.to on the $TSX most of the time actually. So the M.MACD has been good for catching highs overall.
Here is a chart worth a thought. See the Modified MACD turning up towards the zero line. See the Modified MACD Histogram that shows the change more dramatically. And the bottom of the price chart shows the makings of an Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern. IF price can clear 15.50 price would likely run up to 16 quickly and above. But price did close on the low of the day today and the price pattern doesn’t look done on the downside. Best to wait for price to clear 16 plus see the Histogram clear it’s zero line.
Those are my observations in any case. Maybe it’s just the heat that’s fried my brain today. I can’t handle the heat……………………
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49212559312&a=673066137