Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 26th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 7 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of core July PCE Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus on a year-over-year basis was unchanged at 4.8%. Actual was 4.6%.
Investors are waiting for a speech from Fed Chairman Powell at 10:00 AM EDT
Workday advanced $19.39 to $181.75 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results. The company was featured on CNBC s Fast Money last night.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0011-15.png "clip_image001[1]")
Dell dropped $4.00 to 443.90 after reporting less consensus quarterly revenues.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0021-17.png "clip_image002[1]")
Affirm plunged $4.20 to $27.05 after reporting less than consensus quarterly results. The company also lowered fiscal first quarter and annual estimates.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0031-14.png "clip_image003[1]")
Ulta Beauty advanced $12.75 to $432.00 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0041-14.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “With a consumer under strain, loan growth is surging as this cohort of the economy seeks to plug the hole in their finances”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/08/25/stock-market-outlook-for-august-26-2022/
Technical Notes yesterday
Agribusiness ETF $MOO moved above $94.47 extending an intermediate uptrend.
CF Industries $CF one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers moved above $112.58 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Chinese technology and related equities and ETFs (e.g JD.com, Baidu).moved significantly higher on news that Peoples Bank of China has taken steps to reflate the economy.
Chevron $CVX a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $163.18 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Dollar Tree $DLTR a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $147.77 completing a double top pattern. The company reported less than consensus second quarter results.
Bristol-Myers $BMY moved below $71.71 and $71.22 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Cameco $CCO.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above intermediate resistance at Cdn$35.41.
Metals and Mining SPDRs $XME moved above $52.78 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Copper Miners ETF $COPX moved above $32.36 extending an intermediate uptrend.
BMO Equal Weight Global Metals ETF $ZMT.TO moved above $49.15 extending an intermediate uptrend. Several key Canadian based base metal stocks led the advance.
HudBay Minerals $HBM.TO moved above $6.15 extending an intermediate uptrend. The company reached an agreement to resume development.
Lundin Mining $LUN.TO moved above $7.48 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
First Quantum Minerals $FM.TO moved above $27.06 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 25th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 25th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 25th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Tom Bowley says “S&P 500 ready to rip higher”.
S&P 500 Ready To Rip Higher | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (08.25.22) – YouTube
David Keller and Tony Dwyer discuss “It’s all about the R word”.
It’s All About the R Word | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (08.25.22) – YouTube
Jeffrey Huge says “Buyer beware”!
Buyer Beware! | Jeffrey Huge, CMT | Your Daily Five (08.25.22) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.60 to 85.00 yesterday. It remains Overbought.
The long term Barometer added 4.00 to 42.60 yesterday. It returned to Neutral from Oversold on a move above 40.00.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.84 to 79.41 yesterday. It remains Overbought. Trend remains up.
The long term Barometer added 0.42 to 42.02 yesterday. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 26th, 2022 at 4:17 pm
BIR
Thanks to Ron/BC for chart on BIR, didn’t realise that you could compare BIR to $NatGas.
Still need pointers on when to sell as that is the most difficult decision.
CAD Gas Co with most exposure to Henry Hub. Found info from TD last week.
Who is Least Exposed to AECO? Within our Canadian natural gas coverage universe, NuVista (NVA-T), ARX (ARX-T), and Birchcliff (BIR-T) have the least
August 26th, 2022 at 7:27 pm
Nat Gas info:
https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/energy/natural-gas-stocks/
Always keep in mind there are a lot of variables involved with stocks and the underlying commodity. That is why I’m a big believer in price charts.
August 27th, 2022 at 7:47 am
VET – Seems like it was one of the very few energy names that did not pull back on Friday. I’m waiting to see if it pulls back a little from overbought now. It hold’s the crown for resilient market strength among energy. As a barometer of nat gas stocks with exposure to US pricing I would rely on LNG. You can pit LNG against VET on a chart. VET has outperformed it but there has been a bottoming of that outperformance since March. If you just want to have exposure to the pure commodity UNG is available but you will be subject to higher volatility. For portfolio construction a mix of all these names we have discussed can be considered.
August 27th, 2022 at 8:11 am
SPX and Energy – The bulls got knocked over on Friday by Powell and SPX closed exactly at the low. We are going to get more selling on Monday and if we get something fierce energy stocks will not be immune.