Pre-opening Comments for Monday February 13th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 9 points in pre-opening trade.
Caterpillar dropped $3.37 to $244.30 after Baird downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.
Check Point Software added $6.02 to $133.18 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
Five Below gained $2.46 to $204.10 after Roth MKM upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The rejection of Bitcoin and Ethereum from their declining 50-week moving averages hints of the conclusion to the risk-on rally in the market to start the year”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/02/11/stock-market-outlook-for-february-13-2023/
The Bottom Line
Focus this week is release of a series of U.S. January economic reports: CPI on Tuesday, Retail Sales on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Their results will have a heavy weight on likely response by the FOMC on its policy for the Fed Fund Rate.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Analysts increased fourth quarter earnings and revenue estimates slightly from our last report on February 6th. According to www.factset.com fourth quarter earnings are expected to decrease 4.9% (versus previous decrease of 5.3%) but revenues are expected to increase 4.6% (versus previous increase of 4.3%). For all of 2022 earnings are expected to increase 4.2% and revenues are expected to increase 10.6%.
Preliminary estimates for 2023 continue to move lower. According to www.factset.com first quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 5.1% (versus previous decrease of 4.2%) but revenues are expected to increase 1.9% (versus previous increase of 2.0%). Second quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 3.3% (versus previous decrease at 2.9%) and revenues are expected to decrease 0.1%. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 3.4% and revenues are expected to increase 1.3% (versus previous increase of 1.4%). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 10.1% (versus previous increase of 10.5%) and revenues are expected to increase 3.7% (versus previous increase of 4.0%). For all of 2023, earnings are expected to increase 2.5% (versus previous increase of 3.0%) and revenues are expected to increase 2.4% (versus previous increase of 2.5%)
Economic News This Week
January Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 6.2% versus a gain of 6.5% in December. Excluding food and energy sales, January Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January core CPI is expected to increase 5.5% versus a gain of 5.7% in December.
January Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 1.5% versus a drop of 1.1% in December. Excluding auto sales, January Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.7% versus a drop of 1.1% in December.
February Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to drop 20.00 versus a drop of 32.90 in January.
January Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 79.1 from 78.8 in December. January Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.5% versus a drop of 0.7% in December.
December Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in November.
January Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a drop of 0.5% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January Producer Price Index is expected to increase 5.4% versus a gain of 6.2% in December. Excluding food and energy prices, January PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in December. On a year-over-year basis, January core PPI is expected to increase 4.9% versus a gain of 5.5% in December.
February Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to drop 6.7 versus a drop of 8.9 in January.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Sixty nine percent of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results to date. Another 61 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week (including two Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: Coca Cola and Cisco).
Another nine TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for Feb.10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for Feb.10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for Feb.10th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
CATA Presentation
Next presentation by the Canadian Association for Technical Analysis is offered at 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday February 14th. Presenter is Don Vialoux. Everyone is welcome. Not a member of CATA? More information is available at https://canadianata.ca/
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Links offered by valued providers
Mark Leibovit’s weekly column
Copper, Cobalt, Rare Earths, Stock Markets – HoweStreet
What Might Outperform In A New Wave Of Inflation? | Mish Schneider | Your Daily Five
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WsIioybrNs
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for February 11th
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
David Keller discusses three concerning signs for stocks
Three Concerning Signs for Stocks | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Tom McClellan notes “Golden Cross carries some little known magic”
Golden Cross Carries Some Little-Known Magic | Top Advisors Corner | StockCharts.com
Dow Over NASDAQ as Value Rises | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar
Dow Over Nasdaq as Value Rises | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (02.10.23) – YouTube
Bob Hoye’s Weekly Comment
Not Enough Copper for EV Demand, Lithium, Coal – HoweStreet
Josef Schachter explains “Why Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrel”
Why Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrel – HoweStreet
Victor Adair’s Trading Desk Notes For February 11, 2023
Trading Desk Notes For February 11, 2023 – HoweStreet
Ready for the Pullback | TG Watkins | Moxie Indicator Minutes (02.10.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaumVlFBf9Y
Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com discusses a turnaround opportunity
Turnaround Just Getting Started After 2,900% Surge – Uncommon Sense Investor
Technical Scoop by David Chapman and www.enrichedinvesting.com
10 Stocks for a Recession | Morningstar
The Stock Market Rally Is About to Crumble, According to Goldman Sachs (businessinsider.com)
Technical Notes from Friday
Exxon Mobil $XOM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $117.78 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
American Tower $AMT an S&P 100 stock moved below $212.64 completing a double top pattern.
Agnico-Eagle Mines $AEM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$68.26 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Magna International $MG.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below intermediate support at Cdn$78.48 and Cdn73.64 following released of lower than consensus fourth quarter results.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.20 on Friday, but dropped 4.00 last week to 65.60. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer added 2.40 on Friday, but dropped 2.40 last week to 70.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.85 on Friday, but dropped 5.08 last week to 62.29. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
The long term Barometer was unchanged on Friday, but dropped 4.23 last week. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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February 13th, 2023 at 2:46 pm
FishFat,
Thanks for your response Sunday evening. I used to be quite active in the options market but I consider myself “retired” from that. The beauty of the covered call ETFs is that you don’t need to understand options in order to benefit from owning them. Just understand that they will not have the equivalent capital appreciation as an “ordinary” ETF would b/c they are selling away some of the upside in exchange for receiving a higher monthly income. In this sense it is good to know what you own. But you don’t need to understand the intricacies of option trading.
As I suspected, TD has moved up again this morning. But I don’t like to chase so I will wait for a better opportunity. I want to get out and “smell the roses” rather sit in front of a screen so I have to accept that I will miss out on further gains. But as long as I do not give back all my gains, I am satisfied. I don’t believe that markets can continue to go up at this rate even it is the most seasonally attractive time of the 4 year presidential cycle. Sooner or later there will be a consolidation and a better risk/reward time to buy.
February 13th, 2023 at 6:23 pm
Here is the Fear & Greed Index and other data………….
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed