Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 18th
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 29 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
Applied Materials gained $2.41 to $140.00 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter results. The company also offered positive fourth quarter guidance.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0011-10.png "clip_image001[1]")
Ross Stores added $6.13 to 119.19 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results. The company also offered positive guidance. Jefferies raised its target price from $105 to $120.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0021-9.png "clip_image002[1]")
Deere dropped $4.29 to $414.87 despite reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0031-9.png "clip_image003[1]")
Walmart slipped $0.31 to $155.38 despite Raymond James and KeyBanc Capital raising their target price on the stock.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0041-8.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Manufacturer sentiment in Philadelphia has surprisingly flipped to show optimism during this normal retail stocking period ahead of the holiday shopping season”.
https://equityclock.com/2023/08/17/stock-market-outlook-for-august-18-2023/
Technical Notes
Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below its 50 day moving average at 34,615.70.
Salesforce.com $CRM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below intermediate support at $205.02
Walgreens Boots $WBA a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $28.14 extending an intermediate downtrend.
UnitedHealth Group $UNH a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $497.28 completing a double top pattern
EAFE iShares $EFA moved below intermediate support at $69.94.
Nikkei Average moved below 31,791.71 completing a double top pattern.
Medical Devices iShares $IHI moved below intermediate support at $52.09.
Aerospace & Defense ETF $PPA moved below $83.05 completing a double top pattern.
Netflix $NFLX a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $411.88 and $411.40 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
CVS $CVS an S&P 100 stock moved below $72.61, $66.10 and $65.80 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM a TSX 60 stock moved below US$41.17 and Franco Nevada $FNV a TSX 60 stock moved below US$135.68 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 17th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 17th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 17th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Are There Broader Problems With FAILED Breakout in Metals? | Market Buzz (08.16.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7FDFOqmwzc
Sentiment Says Bottom Rapidly Approaching | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (08.17.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFS6zcY-Z9A
What Does Equal-Weight S&P 500 Tell Us About Market Strength? | The Final Bar (08.16.23)
What Does Equal-Weight S&P 500 Tell Us About Market Strength? | The Final Bar (08.16.23) – YouTube
3 Critical Keys To Multiple Timeframe Trading | Stock Talk (08.17.23)
3 Critical Keys To Multiple Timeframe Trading | Stock Talk (08.17.23) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 7.00 to 34.40. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend remains down.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.40 to 53.60. It remains Neutral. Daily trend remains down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.85 to 37.89. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend remains down.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.88 to 48.46. It remains Neutral. Daily trend remains down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 18th, 2023 at 11:21 am
As an eternal optimist I see the market drop start to stall as we get close to SPX oversold RSI today. I’m not going to pretend that’s it this early in the calendar. I find energy holding up remarkably well but you never know if it just ends up being the last shoe to drop or it defies the drop in everything else. The thesis is that energy is extremely underowned on a historical basis and its’ comparative undervaluation and recent relative success now draws in new money. XEG is a fraction of a percent from the high it made. We are seeing 50/200 day cross-overs on XOP, CNQ and we are close to one on XEG.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:33 am
XEG actually broke its’ 16.50 high today.
August 18th, 2023 at 11:47 am
For those looking for a guaranteed return on cash with no risk I see EQ Bank just raised it’s one year GIC rate to 5.60%. That can be put into a TFSA GIC with no tax consequences. In other words free money. The BOC will announce its interest rate September 6th I believe and it is expected to be increased again. The U.S. is expected to increase their rates soon as well. I just had one TFSA come due and am waiting to buy another soon. Its nice to get a chunk of free cash with no taxes and at no risk.
August 20th, 2023 at 3:43 pm
RE: Energy stocks
Here is an old chart of Ron/BC’s which I have not updated. If you scroll down, you can see that SU.TO is starting to outperform both XEG and CNQ. It has happened before but it could just be testing old highs and not starting a new trend.
https://schrts.co/JWsQcCRx
August 20th, 2023 at 6:08 pm
Paula
The Energy stocks have been in a horizontal sea saw between $36 and $48 for over a year now and of course everyone starts jumping up and down on every short term rally up only to see them all selloff again to support. SU.to is presently bumping its downtrendline with an overbought RSI 8. Doesn’t mean price can’t keep rallying but I wouldn’t bet on it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38692056514&a=734261051