Tech Talk for Monday June 10th 2024

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 10th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 2 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Apple added $2.41 to $196.89 prior to start of the company’s World Wide Development Conference today. CEO Tim Cook gives the keynote presentation this afternoon.

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Southwest Airlines jumped $1.90 to $29.65 on news that Elliott Investment Management has taken a $2 billion stake in the company.

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Wal-mart advanced $0.74 to $66/62 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Overweight.

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Draftkings added $0.61 to $37.50 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Top Pick

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EquityClock’s stock market outlook for June 10th

Preparing for June weakness while anticipating summer strength.

See: https://equityclock.com/2024/06/08/stock-market-outlook-for-june-10-2024/

The Bottom Line

Focus this week is on news following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday in response to the stronger than expected U.S. May employment report released last Friday: May Non-farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings came in “hotter” than expected. Under these conditions a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate by the FOMC probably has been delayed until at least the September 17th-18th meeting and more likely until the December meeting. The delay will dampen buying interest in U.S. equities and related products during the quieter summer months when returns normally are lower than average.

The Canadian Dollar came under technical pressure following the Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its lending rate from 5.00% to 4.75% and after release of the hotter than expected U.S. employment report.

 

Economic News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

May U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in April. On a year-over-year basis, May CPI is expected to increase 3.4% versus a gain of 3.4% in April. Excluding food and energy, May CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in April. On a year-over-year basis, core May CPI is expected to increase 3.5% versus a gain of 3.6% in April

FOMC Economic Statement is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday. Press conference is offered at 2:30 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate at 5.25%-5.50%.

May Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.5% in April. On a year-over-year basis, May PPI is expected to increase 2.2% versus a gain of 2.2% in April. Excluding food and energy, May PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.5% in April. On a year-over-year basis core May PPI is expected to increase 2.3% versus a gain of 2.4% in April.

June Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 73.0 from 69.1 in May.

 

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 7th 2024

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 7th 2024

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 6th 2024

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

 

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower


Changes Last Week

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Technical Notes for Friday

Nike $NKE a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $95.85 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Lockheed Martin $LMT an S&P 100 stock moved above $470.37 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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DocuSign $DOCU a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below $49.12 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Saputo $SAP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$28.49, Cdn$28.73 and $29.18 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Links offered by valued providers

Time to be cautious in the stock market: Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2024/06/time-to-be-cautious-in-the-stock-market-mark-leibovit/

 

Buy cyclical companies with high levels of market control: Kayne Anderson’s Julie Biel

Buy cyclical companies with high levels of market control: Kayne Anderson’s Julie Biel – YouTube

 

May jobs report likely to postpone Fed rate cuts, economist says

May jobs report likely to postpone Fed rate cuts, economist says – YouTube

 

Eric Nuttall’s outlook on the energy market

Eric Nuttall’s outlook on the energy market – YouTube

 

Mike’s Money Talks for June 8th 2024

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/mikes-content/

 

Tracking the Three Signs of the Bear: David Keller

Tracking the Three Signs of the Bear | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

 

Technology Sector Participation Is Fading: Carl Swenlin

Technology Sector Participation Is Fading | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com

 

Why Falling Central Bank Rates are Bad News: Bob Hoye

Why Falling Central Bank Rates are Bad News – HoweStreet

 

Trading Desk Notes For June 8, 2024: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes For June 8, 2024 – HoweStreet

 

WTI Crude Plunges Over US$4/B To US$73.10/B As OPEC Plans To Open The Spigots in Q4/24: Josef Schachter

WTI Crude Plunges Over US$4/B To US$73.10/B As OPEC Plans To Open The Spigots in Q4/24 – HoweStreet

 

Technical Scoop for Monday June 10th 2024 thanks to David Chapman and www.enrichedinvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Inflation-history-new-highs-growing-divergences-rosy-jobs-rot-risk-precious-bull-golden-caveatt.pdf

 

David Rosenberg – How To Prepare For The Coming Collapse

David Rosenberg – How To Prepare For The Coming Collapse – YouTube

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.60 on Friday and slipped 1.40 last week to 49.20. It remains Neutral.

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The long term Barometer dropped 1.60 on Friday and dropped 3.80 last week to 68.80. It remains Overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer plunged 16.22 on Friday and plunged 23.12 lasts week to 44.59. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.

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The long term Barometer dropped 3.60 on Friday and slipped 1.94 last week to 65.77. It remains Overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




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