Pre-opening Comments for Friday March 10th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were added 12 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures rallied following release of the U.S. February Employment Report at 8:30 AM EST. Non-farm Payrolls were expected to increase 205,000 versus a gain of 517,000 in January. Actual was an increase of 311,000. February Unemployment Rate was expected to remain at 3.4% set in January. Actual was an increase to 3.6%. February Average Hourly Earnings were expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in January. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, February Average Hourly Earnings were expected to increase 4.7% versus a gain of 4.4% in January. Actual was an increase of 4.6%.
The Canadian dollar added 0.20 to US72.50 following release of the February Canadian Employment Change report at 8:30 AM EST. Employment was expected to increase 5,000 versus a gain of 150,000 in January. Actual was an increase of 21,800. February Unemployment Rate was expected to increase to 5.1% from 5.0% in January. Actual was unchanged at 5.0%.
SVB Financial plunged another $45.04 to $61.00 following a run on its assets.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/clip_image0011-6.png "clip_image001[1]")
Bank of Montreal is expected to open lower after announcing purchase of Air Miles Reward Program.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
Oracle dropped $1.62 to $85.25 after reporting less than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/clip_image0031-5.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The performance of Banks and the surge of Jobless Claims providing a significant warning to the market that the cascading decline in economic fundamentals and corresponding downfall of stocks may be near”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/03/09/stock-market-outlook-for-march-10-2023/
Technical Notes
Dow Jones Industrial Average SPDRs $DIA moved below $324.84 completing a double top pattern.
Weakness was notable in the financial sector. U.S. Regional Bank SPDRs $KRE moved below $56.33 and $55.36 extending an intermediate downtrend. U.S. Bank SPDRs $KBE moved below $43.38 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Notable U.S. banks moving below intermediate support setting intermediate downtrends included Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Citigroup $C moved below $49.15 completing a double top pattern.
Bank of America $BAC an S&P 100 stock moved below $31.15 extending an intermediate downtrend.
JP Morgan $JPM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below support at $133.55.
Morgan Stanley $MS moved below intermediate support at $92.20.
U.S. Insurance iShares $IAK moved below $89.80 and $89.45 extending setting an intermediate downtrend.
Travelers $TRV a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $56.33 extending an intermediate downtrend
Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks that broke intermediate support included JP Morgan, Walgreens Boots and UnitedHealth Group. Walgreens Boots $WBA moved below $33.85 extending an intermediate downtrend. UnitedHealth Group $UNH moved below $463.89 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Other S&P 100 stocks breaking intermediate support included Colgate Palmolive and Dow.
Colgate Palmolive $CL moved below $70.94 extending an intermediate downtrend. Dow $DOW moved below $55.38 and $55.15 completing a short term Head & Shoulders pattern.
Canadian “gassy” stocks responded to higher natural gas prices. ARX Resources moved above $16.15. Advantage moved above $8.68 and $8.69.
Base metal stocks responded to strength in the U.S. dollar. Teck Corp $TECK a TSX 60 stock moved below US$37.96 extending an intermediate downtrend. Lundin Mining $LUN.TO moved below Cdn$8.03 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Restaurant Brands International $QSR.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$85.56 completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 9th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 9th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 9th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 11.40 to 30.00. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00. Trend remains down.
The long term Barometer dropped 7.80 to 49.80. It remains Neutral. Trend remains down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 8.09 to 40.00. It remains Neutral. Trend is down.
The long term Barometer dropped 5.11 to 57.45. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Downtrend has resumed.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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March 10th, 2023 at 11:06 pm
Here is something everyone might have a fighting chance with.
https://schrts.co/RRKeTMbE
March 11th, 2023 at 12:24 am
re #1:
Or maybe WPM.TO as well?
March 11th, 2023 at 12:46 am
Still_Learning
Re:#2
Well perhaps you are right. The rest of the market looks like it wants to crash and burn for a long time now. This looks much better. They can’t all be losers can they,lol…………
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WPM.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10899882606&a=1370759490
March 11th, 2023 at 2:04 pm
RE: TD.TO
Here is a monthly chart I posted some time ago. I am waiting for a test of the 50ema, ~ 76. That is still more than 9% lower but a strong area of support. The yield will probably be close to 5% and oversold on the RSI(8):
https://schrts.co/KZKHEfHQ
March 11th, 2023 at 2:23 pm
RE: ZEB.TO
Here is the same chart we looked at/discussed a month ago. How quickly things can change in a month. On the daily, it is already looking over sold but support still seems some distance below, possibly around the December low ~ 32.64.
https://schrts.co/YUgbjgPJ
March 11th, 2023 at 5:08 pm
Paula
Here is the Seasonality of TD.to. March is the worst month of the year historically.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=TD.TO
March 11th, 2023 at 6:52 pm
Here is a chart that has “potential”. ABX.to. Nice bullish looking “W” pattern right at a price support level along with the RSI 8 showing a very bullish positive divergence as well.
It’s amazing at how many charts just show a mish mash of choppiness with no good chart patterns throughout the bunch.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35332129702&a=709369229
March 11th, 2023 at 7:21 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks. I see what you mean about TD seasonality in March.
You seem to be warming up to the gold stocks. I sold GDX in January and glad I did but I am watching it for an entry later in the year.
March 11th, 2023 at 7:34 pm
Paula
You can use that chart to compare another stock, financial or otherwise to see the relative difference in performance between them. Also I’ve gone through a ton of stocks and nothing looks very good to me. What surprises me is you’ll see a nice reversal back up on a chart and shortly after that it plunges with a big selloff. If I wasn’t so paranoid I’d sell my condo and buy another. “OR” buy another condo and rent out my condo. You would not believe what kind of rent you can get here on the West Coast. I think things are going to get very ugly financially this year. Perhaps it’s time to move somewhere that is calmer than this…………….Meanwhile cash in a GIC still looks like a good deal. And the interest is tax free.(Thanks to Stephen Harper) Recall when he left there was a balanced budget……………
March 12th, 2023 at 3:15 pm
Ron/BC,
At least you recognize that you are paranoid. Your condo selling ventures might not be so easy with interest rates going up. Fewer people will be able to afford to buy. Not to mention the aggravation involved in moving. But you must be feeling better from your hip replacement if you are talking about moving again. If you do buy another condo to rent out, you will be a landlord and have all the aggravation that comes with that plus your rental income will not be tax free.
I guess you only buy GICs in your TFSA or RRIF. Outside of a registered account, interest income is 100% taxed. Dividend income is eligible for a dividend tax credit so for example, in the 53.53% tax bracket, you will pay $535.30 in taxes on $1,000 in interest income; you will pay $393.40 on $1,000 in dividend income.
https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/canada/individual/income-determination
March 12th, 2023 at 3:56 pm
Paula
I am doing OK since the hip replacement but have gained weight which isn’t ideal.Moving isn’t so bad as it forces me to get rid of lots of unneeded stuff.Plus I like stuffing my bank account with the profits. LThe key is to buy cheaper than you sold for. See how the Liberals are going to tax home profits unless you lived there 2 years. Then they’ll just keep increasing the tax on each place and increase the time lived in the be tax free. Typical Liberals. There aught to be a bounty on them.So I’ll stick to what works.
March 12th, 2023 at 4:54 pm
Ron/BC,
Good to hear you are doing ok. I’m surprised you still have any unneeded stuff after all your moves in recent years.
Going through old charts and came across this one of yours with your old annotations. It still seems like HUI is going nowhere.
https://schrts.co/mdCeSEmD
March 12th, 2023 at 6:49 pm
Paula
Well as time goes by what was important to keep once isn’t anymore. Sad but true. Here is a chart of GDX with some comparisons on it. What I especially like for near perfect timing is the RSI 21 crossing back over the 50 line on a Daily chart. Can’t ask for more really.I also put on the RSI 30 so there isn’t a short term false signal but that is being too fussy I think. I haven’t tested it on all the charts as I have to sleep sometimes. I also overlaid the MACD 12,26,9 on the MODIFIED MACD 50,200,9 just to see the difference. But the chart does suggest a further rally in the GOLD group. Butttttttttttttt, it hasn’t signaled for sure YET………………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28776268556&a=673066134
March 12th, 2023 at 9:53 pm
Ron/BC,
Thanks for the updated GDX chart. It does look more attractive the way you have drawn it but as you say it hasn’t actually signaled yet.