Pre-opening Comments for Monday August 8th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 22 points in pre-opening trade.
Barrick Gold slipped $0.12 to US$20.17 after reporting less than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings.
Pfizer was unchanged at $49.27 following news of its acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics for $68.50 per share cask. Value of the offer is estimated at $5.4 billion. Global Blood Therapeutics added $2.66 to $66.50.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0021-4.png "clip_image002[1]")
Tyson Foods slipped $0.15 to $87.30 after reporting less than consensus fiscal third quarter results.
Tesla gained $13.96 to $878.50 after the Senate approved a climate and tax package favouring sale of electric cars.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/clip_image0041-3.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “Both Canada and the US recorded a sharp drop in employment in July, one better than average, the other worse”. Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/08/06/stock-market-outlook-for-august-8-2022/
Technical Scoop for August 8th
The Bottom Line
Most broadly base equity indices around the world recorded small gains or losses last week Exceptions were the NASDAQ Composite Index (up 2.15%) and the Nikkei Average (up 1.35%). Major influences were higher than consensus quarterly results (positive) and growing inflation expectations (negative)
Earnings and Revenue Outlook for S&P 500 companies
Consensus earnings and revenue estimates for S&P 500 companies on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter of 2022 increased significantly again last week. Results have been reported by 87% of S&P 500 companies to date. According to www.FactSet.com consensus for second quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis calls for an increase of 6.7% (versus 6.0% last week) and consensus for revenues calls for an increase of 13.6% (versus 12.3% last week).
Consensus earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies beyond the second quarter on a year-over-year basis dropped significantly again last week. According to www.FactSet.com earnings in the third quarter are expected to increase 5.8% (versus 6.7% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 9.1% (versus 9.4% last week). Earnings in the fourth quarter are expected to increase 6.1% (versus 6.7% last week) and revenues are expected to increase 6.7% (versus 6.9% last week). Earnings on a year-over-year basis for all of 2022 are expected to increase 8.9% and revenues are expected to increase 11.0% (versus 10.7% last week).
Economic News This Week
July U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 1.3% in June. On a year-over-year basis July CPI is expected to increase 8.9% versus 9.1% in June. Excluding food and energy, July Consumer Price Index is expected to increase 0.5% versus a gain of 0.7% in June. On a year-over-year basis July CPI is expected to increase 6.1% versus 5.9% in June.
July U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 1.1% in June. On a year-over-year basis, July PPI is expected to increase 10.4% versus a gain of 11.3% in June. Excluding food and energy, July PPI is expected to increase 0.4% versus an increase of 0.4% in June. On a year-over-year basis, July PPI is expected to increase 7.6% versus a gain of 8.2% in June.
August Michigan Consumer Sentiment released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase to 52.3 from 51.5 in July.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 23 S&P 500 companies (including one Dow Jones Industrial Average company: Disney) are scheduled to release quarterly results this week. Another eight TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release results.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 5th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 5th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 5th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
All seasonality ratings are based on performance relative to the S&P 500 Index (except TSX)
Links offered by valued providers
Greg Schnell says “These charts say it’s not over”.
These Charts Say It’s Not Over | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com
Mark Leibovit’s discusses “Bear market rally, U.S. recession and inflation”
Bear Market Rally, US Recession, Inflation – HoweStreet
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for August 6th
August 6 Episode (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Sprott says “Signs of capitulation everywhere”.
Sprott Monthly Report: Signs of Capitulation Everywhere
Erin Swenlin discusses “Climbing the wall of worry’
Climbing the Wall of Worry | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com
Bruce Fraser says “A Wyckoff cause is forming. What’s next”?
A Wyckoff Cause is Forming. What’s Next? | Wyckoff Power Charting | StockCharts.com
Mary Ellen McGonagle says “Growth stocks continue to gain. Will their strength continue”?
Growth Stocks Continue To Gain — Will Their Strength Continue? | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com
John Hopkins discusses “When cash is king”.
When Cash is King | Top Advisors Corner | StockCharts.com
Links from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com
"People Have FOMO and Freak Out Low" – Uncommon Sense Investor
When Will the Fed Stop Hiking Rates? – Uncommon Sense Investor
These Three Large Caps Are Attractive for Long-Term Investors – Uncommon Sense Investor
10 Dividend Growth Stocks Delivering Impressive Increases | Kiplinger
Stock Market Outlook: Rebound Looks More Like New Bull Than Bear Rally (businessinsider.com)
Victor Adair’s Weekly Trading Notes for August 6th
Trading Desk Notes for August 6, 2022 – The Trading Desk Notes by Victor Adair
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
Russell 2000 iShares $IWM moved above $190.44 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Morgan Stanley $MS an S&P 100 stock moved above $86.00 extending an intermediate uptrend.
TC Energy $TRP a TSX 60 stock moved below $63.05 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. virtually collapsed late last week.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.60 on Friday and dropped 4.00 last week to 73.00. It remains Overbought and showing early signs of peaking
The long term Barometer added 1.20 on Friday and 0.20 last week to 37.00. It remains Oversold. Trend remains up.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer slipped 2.52 on Friday and dropped 5.88 last week to 55.46. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 0.42 on Friday but slipped 0.85 last week to 36.97. It remains Oversold.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 8th, 2022 at 1:34 pm
The $SPX is bumping up against the June high resistance (which is also the June 21 low) Price needs to clear this resistance and hold above it to suggest a run up to its downtrendline. Lots of resistance to clear and hold with the $SPX. I’ve overlaid the $SPX with $COMP to show the difference in volatility. The 2nd link is the Seasonality of the $SPX. Not bad for August but negative for Sept/Oct. As far as safety goes Tangerine is paying 4.50% with a GIC within a TFSA account where there are no tax consequences. I finally waited for rates to get up to acceptable levels and dumped some cash into that. And you have 30 days to change your mind if rates go higher etc.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28508995573&a=939923011
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24SPX
August 8th, 2022 at 2:07 pm
Re:#!
The GIC term was just one year!