Pre-opening Comments for Friday September 23rd
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 45 points in pre-opening trade.
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged at US74.00 cents following release of Canada’s July Retail Sales. Consensus was a drop of 2.0%. Actual was a drop of 2.5%.
WTI Crude oil dropped $3.08 to $80.41 per barrel on strength in the U.S. Dollar.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0011-12.png "clip_image001[1]")
FedEx dropped 1.54 to $153.00 after target price on the stock was lowered by Cowen, Evercore and Citigroup.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0021-15.png "clip_image002[1]")
Costco dropped $16.66 to $470.51 after JP Morgan lowered its target price from $589 to $550.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0031-10.png "clip_image003[1]")
Steelcase slipped $0.17 to $8.14 after Benchmark lowered its target price from $16 to $12.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/clip_image0041-5.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The Fed may be pushing us out of bond ETFs, for now, but, as the economy falls into recession, this asset class will require a core allocation in portfolios again.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/09/22/stock-market-outlook-for-september-23-2022/
Technical Notes for yesterday
ETFs moving below intermediate support: TAN, XLB, XLY, EZU, IAI, CARZ, XIT.TO
S&P 100 stocks moving below intermediate support: NKE, TGT, AXP, BAC. COF, JPM, MA, V, MDT, DHR, DD, KMI
NASDAQ 100 stocks moving below intermediate support: PYPL, SPLK, SWKS, TTWO, MRVL, AMD, ILMN, JD
TSX 60 stocks breaking intermediate support: CP, TRI, CSU, ATD, BNS, MFC
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 22nd 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 22nd 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 22nd 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
Dave Keller notes “Market snatches defeat from the jaws of victory”.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 4.20 to 12.00 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
The long term Barometer dropped another 4.00 to 20.20 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer plunged 11.71 to 24.15 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.42 to 27.12 yesterday. It remains Oversold. Trend remains down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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September 23rd, 2022 at 10:28 am
I’ve posted this before, the site used to be free for decades but now one has to pay….but some charts are still available for free….
https://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_index_sp500.html
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:54 pm
The $SPX is approaching a double bottom being the June low. Oscillators are very oversold and price is not far away from a nice bounce back. It’s still a sick puppy but not dead yet……Should be some “good news” soon to explain it all away……………..There is always a “story” for those that need one……………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88044844950&a=1039537764
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:34 pm
Re: 2
As for the potential “story”;
Currently there’s in progress speech by Jerome Powell (started at 2 P.M.).
Some expect that he is going to “walk back” recent harsh verbage by him and other FOMC members in order to “correct the investor’s perceptions” and prevent the market falling off the cliff.
Technicals may indicate the effects, if any, by closing today or in the near future.
I’m sitting tight with my conservative portfolio and am rather happy that HAC etf currently holds ~70% cash;
September 23rd, 2022 at 3:25 pm
Volume today is too light to be the final “capitulation”, might be a bounce in here, but eventually we will move much lower…..Below the June lows….Feds are not finished with rate hikes….as long as rates are rising, markets will struggle.
September 23rd, 2022 at 4:08 pm
Volume today is too light to be the final “capitulation”, might be a trading bounce in here, but eventually we will move much lower…..Below the June lows….Feds are not finished with rate hikes….as long as rates are rising, markets will struggle. I suspect we will eventually see the pre-Covid crash high in early 2020 of 3393, either as support or violated.
40 year high inflation will not be so easily tamed. Higher rates needed. Fed and BOC very aggressively raising rates, markets seeing big recession next year, lower earnings, less need for oil and commodities, etc. reason for correction. Markets always looking ahead.
Bearish “Rounding top” or “Inverse Saucer”:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32525922324
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inversesaucer.asp
https://www.forexstrategiesresources.com/patterns-forex-strategies/chart-patterns/18-rounding-top-bearish-reversal/
September 23rd, 2022 at 4:38 pm
Canuck – great to see you back in the trading saddle. I owe you a big thank you for your confident market bottom March 2020. I bought stock and never looked back – still holding it for my long term investment bucket. Ron, you are a treasure – thank you for your consistent posts and thoughtful charts. Looks like you’re both saying SPX bottoms out around 3400. I’m going to start nibbling away at my favourite blue chips ‘cause I not smart enough to catch an absolute bottom. Plus market needs some good news going into midterms down here and Putin’s swift removal from office might just do the trick . Have a great weekend everyone.
September 23rd, 2022 at 8:15 pm
Just to echo Flo-Rida’s comment, it is indeed good to see you back, Canuck. I have used your guides for timing buys and sells for years now; they give me great confidence. And a big Thank You as always to RonBC for your regular and reliable comment. And how are arrangements going for your operation? I live in Victoria too, and am still struggling with a total knee replacement I had nearly two years ago. I understand your apprehension. Good luck with it, and in the words of Chuck Yeager, “Press on!” Doug.
September 23rd, 2022 at 8:57 pm
Ross Healy Fang Friday, particularly interesting this week. Of course the FANGS are a major part of the US indexes, so where they go, the rest of the indexes go….. only 12 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7TjQ3SezZU
September 23rd, 2022 at 9:58 pm
Hi Flo-Rida and DougP,
These days I only come here when something important happens in the markets. Been retired 11 years now, so not as much trading as the old days, smaller amounts. Yep, the 2020 COVID crash was a great one. My brother in-law as visiting us in Arizona at the time and I was telling him to “collar your fear and buy”. He was using my wife’s laptop at the other end of the table and I was guiding him. It was hilarious watching him sweat while buying Royal Bank with a 7% yield…too funny. How can one go wrong with that buy?
Of course I am way more aggressive than he is and I use maximum margin when I see a gift in the markets like that one.
In my main trading account, I sold everything in August 2021, booking well over a 400% gain for the past 14 months or so. Big tax bill, but had to be done. Bought back different names in the Fall, fewer names, O&G focusses, sold a little too late in April/early May, booked small gains (should have sold sooner, but better than a loss), and went 100% cash, until about a week or so ago, and have been nibbling here and there. I expect to add to those names as they go lower. Now about 80% cash, in instruments like CASH ETF, etc.
When BNS broke its June low, I bought a half position, almost a 6% yield, hard to go wrong long term. BNS went lower today, but not yet time to add. We will see better prices. When or if I see Royal Bank with a 7% yield again, I will back up the truck as they say….lol.
Financials is where I want to focus, at rock bottom prices, as they lead on the way out of the Recession. As the saying goes: “you cannot have a recovery without the participation of the Financials”. High interest rates are good for Financials, but they finance the excess so they get hammered early. I’d watch CM carefully, they are mostly in residential mortgages and I expect a major collapse in Real Estate. I’m starting to sniff around there too, both here and the US….too soon yet, not enough pain.
RRSP no change, starting to take funds out now, just dividends, as a pre-RRIF which I will have to do soon anyway. No more re-investing there, just spend the cash flow. I paused during 2020 to buy, hard not too.
TFSA, max it out every year from RRSP withdrawals. Monthly cash flow is re-invested monthly as it comes in. Adding to names in sequence, just finished boosting 52 or so names by 25% each, just one left. After that, I’m not sure….maybe just in cash for now.
I also have a small Margin account that I use mostly for ETFs. Originally this is a joint account with my wife, and I wanted to show her that one can beat the .80% interest one was getting in a savings account, with safety and stability, but holding a variety of Bond ETFs, and low volatility ETFs. This account is with Scotia, and they have 103 various ETFs commission free, so one can buy as little as one share. I was boosting the savings account rate by a wide margin. Recently, I started to sell off some of the Bond ETFs and slowly started buying Equity ETFs. In transition now, I will be coming out eventually with no Bonds. On bad days like today I trim Bond ETFs and buy equity ETFs. Very few left now. I also have about 80% in cash like instruments there, like CASH ETF. I posted several ideas about them some time ago. You can margin them, so when the time comes, I don’t have to sell them to buy stocks or ETFs, only if I have to. Ballast in the account.
Two way to buy stocks:
1) SPECULATE, otherwise Trade, market timing and such, using margin when needed. Focused portfolio in Margin Account.
2) INVEST, holding for the long term, best quality names, equal weight, diversified portfolio. This is for RRSP and TFSA, can’t have losses here, not big ones anyway.
I do both, it depends on the situation and type of account. These terms are not to be confused like most people do. Like one of my relatives said, “I invest too, I buy Bitcoin”…I replied, that’s a speculation not an investment. Doesn’t mean you can’t make money, but it’s doubtful. Not my cup of tea….lol. Speculation is just a fancy word for gambling.
Anyway, just chatting, it might help somebody.
September 23rd, 2022 at 10:01 pm
DougP
I have a private hip surgery date in late October in Calgary Alberta. Cost is $28,000 plus hotel accommodation & flight costs and a car rental. No point in waiting for a surgery date in Victoria as it will never happen. Most surgeries here are canceled for a variety of reasons. So it’s worth the cost for a guaranteed surgery date.