Editor’s Note
Next Tech Talk report will be released (in the New Year!) on Tuesday January 3rd
Pre-opening Comments for Friday December 30th 2022
U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 26 points in pre-opening trade.
U.S and Canadian equity trading activity today is expected to be substantially lower than average today. U.S. equity markets are scheduled to close at their regular time. The U.S. bond market is scheduled to close at 2:00 PM EST.
Canadian equity exchanges are scheduled to close at their regular time.
U.S. and Canadian exchanges are closed on Monday for the New Year holiday. Trading resumes at regular times on Tuesday.
AmerisourceBergen $ABC dropped 4.42 to z4161.63 after the FDA filed an opioid suit against the company.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/clip_image0011-15.png "clip_image001[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “A surge in demand in recent weeks has pushed gasoline product supplied back to the highs of the year, supportive for the price of energy commodities during their period of seasonal strength”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2022/12/29/stock-market-outlook-for-december-30-2022/
Technical Notes for Friday
VALE, one of the largest base metals producers in the world, moved above US$17.03 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Platinum ETN $PPLT moved above $97.50 extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength to March 1st !
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 29th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 29th 2022
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 29th 2021
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Outlook for 2023 by CFRA’s Sam Stovel
Tech Talk’s 2022 Yearend Review and Outlook for 2023
Following are notes developed for Michael Campbell prior to his year end Money Talks podcast released last Wednesday.
WOFC Update Comments
for December 28th 2022
(Updates from comments offered for Money Talks on June 30th )
Comment: North American equity indices follow a four year Presidential cycle after a new president from the previous party takes control (As happened when Biden, the Democrat became President by defeating Trump, the Republican).
Seasonal expectation: North American equity indices reach a four year low in mid-year during the second year after the new President is elected.
Actual observations: North American equity indices completed double bottom patterns with lows reached near the end of June and in mid-October. Subsequently, they have recorded modest gains. The S&P 500 Index added 1.5% and the TSX Composite Index advanced 3.4%.
Outlook: Seasonal analysis of North American equity markets since 1930 indicates that the third year of the Presidential Cycle (e.g. 2023) is the strongest period in the four year cycle. Average gain per period for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1930 was 14.0%.
Comment: Preferred sector investment for the first half of 2022 was the Mines and Metals sector. An Exchange Traded Fund, that tracks the sector, is S&P Metals and Mining SPDRs (Symbol: XME).
Seasonal expectation: Favourable seasonal influences peak in early June and bottom in early October.
Actual observation: XME topped in late April after a gain of 55% and bottomed in late September. From its low in late September, XME has advanced 25%.
Outlook: Demand for products in the Mines and Metals sector in the U.S. is expected to expand significantly in 2023 as funds for the U.S. Infrastructure Program are employed. Demand also will increase from China as its economy recovers from COVID 19. XME is an attractive investment at current prices for a seasonal trade lasting to early June.
Comment: Wholesale gasoline prices in the U.S. based on the Exchange Traded Note: UGA have a history of moving higher in the first half of the year as the summer driving season arrives.
Seasonal expectation: Gasoline prices move higher from mid-December to the end of May.
Actual observation: Gasoline prices virtually doubled from January to mid-June in 2022 when profit-taking was recommended
Outlook: Gasoline prices bottomed in mid-December on schedule. Accumulation for a seasonal trade in the first half of 2023 is recommended.
Comment: TSX Gold iShares (XGD.TO) have two periods of seasonal strength each year related to recurring annual events: Gold is purchased from mid-June to early September by jeweler manufacturers in India for the Diwali season and from mid December to end of February by jeweler manufacturers in China for the Chinese New Year.
Seasonal Expectations: Gold and gold stocks move higher from mid- December to the end of February and from mid-June to early September.
Actual observations: XGD.TO advanced 35% from mid-December 2021 to early March 2022. The mid-June to early September trade did not work this year. XGD.TO dropped 12% from mid-June to early September 2022 when the U.S. Dollar Index soared from 103 to 110. Units recently reached a seasonal low on December 19th at $17.00.
Outlook: Favourable seasonal influences started on schedule this December. Prices of gold and gold equities/ETFs recently established a short term uptrend in response to weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. Prospects for gold purchases by Chinese jeweler manufacturers prior to China’s New Year celebrations on January 22nd is an added consideration as China’s economy recovers from COVID 19. Accumulation for a seasonal trade lasting to the end of February is recommended.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer advanced 12.80 to 56.80. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 3.60 to 52.60. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 8.47 to 53.39. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 5.08 to 47.46. It remains Neutral
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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December 30th, 2022 at 1:14 pm
If you are listening to this today, 30 Dec 2022, you were a big winner this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwkqYepulQ4&ab_channel=TheIrishRovers
Life is indeed Beautiful.
All The Best to You and Your Loved Ones for 2023!
December 30th, 2022 at 1:18 pm
Oops, Forgot to say,
A Big Thank You to the staff at Tech Talk, and to all of us home gamers
who care to read the posts during the year.
Just another way to fight back the onset of old age.
December 30th, 2022 at 7:28 pm
Statistics:
The S&P/TSX WAS DOWN 8.6% TO 10,384 WHICH WAS THE WORST SINCE 2008
The DOW WAS DOWN 8.78% TO 33,147
THE $SPX WAS DOWN 9.44% TO 2839
THE NASDAQ WAS DOWN 33.10% TO 10,466
January 1st, 2023 at 11:50 am
HAPPY NEW YEAR to All connected with this site
Ron/BC
#3 – Are that returns for 2022 as I am interested in TR for the above indexes for 2022
Thanks
January 1st, 2023 at 12:51 pm
MUNTAZIR
I’m no expert on the calculation gibberish but here is what I got on Google about the S&P500. Not a good year any way you slice/or hook it.
S&P 500 Total Returns by Year
Year Total Return
2022 -18.11
2021 28.71
2020 18.40
2019 31.49
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_12_month_total_return
January 1st, 2023 at 3:04 pm
HNY to everyone!
Is it just me, or are others noticing a ragged double top for a lot of stocks with the current prices resting at the bottom of the RHS? For instance, IMO.TO
Where do prices go from here? …I’m thinking chopping sideways for a while, then?
January 1st, 2023 at 5:21 pm
Ron/BC
NTR
Thanks for the Wayne Dyer link the other day. I find his talks to be inspirational. One of his phrases that I have enjoyed is: Life is a sexually transmitted disease for which there is no cure. (may not be exact).
Hope to continue discussing the market and other topics in the New Year!
January 1st, 2023 at 6:20 pm
Paula #7
I’ve always enjoyed Wayne Dyer and others like him. I used to go to the talks from those like him when younger. And I read his books as well as taking a course in REIKI etc. Here is a quote of his that I have always lived by in everything I did while so many people try to be better than others at any price. I never cared about beating others. I never saw the point of that.
12. “My goal is not to be better than anyone else, but to be better than I used to be.”
January 3rd, 2023 at 1:00 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puHg3QrhoPI