Editor’s Note: Although Monday is a holiday in Canada, Tech Talk will be available as usual.
Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 19th
U.S .equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 12 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US74.21 cents following release of March Canadian Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a drop of 1.4% versus a decline of 0.2% in February. Actual was a drop of 1.4%. Excluding auto sales, consensus was a drop of 0.8% versus a drop of 0.7% in February. Actual was a drop of 0.3%.
Applied Materials dropped $1.92 to $120.00 after lowering third quarter guidance.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/clip_image0011-9.png "clip_image001[1]")
Occidental Petroleum added $0.15 to $58.40 after Berkshire Hathaway confirmed additional purchases of the stock to almost a 25% interest.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/clip_image0021-9.png "clip_image002[1]")
DXC Technology dropped $1.00 to$22.75 after reporting less than consensus fiscal fourth quarter results.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/clip_image0031-9.png "clip_image003[1]")
Deere added $13.16 to $383.68 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings. The company also raised guidance.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/clip_image0041-5.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “The trajectory of loan activity has taken an interesting shift, diverging from seasonal norms, as lending standards tighten”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/05/18/stock-market-outlook-for-may-19-2023/
Technical Notes
S&P 500 Index moved above 4,195.44 extending an intermediate uptrend.
NASDAQ 100 Index moved above 13,720.91 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Semiconductor ETF $SMH moved above $131.79 extending an intermediate uptrend. Semiconductor iShares $SOXX moved above $445.34 extending an intermediate uptrend.
KLA Tencor $KLAC a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $426.64 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Home Builders SPDRs $XHB moved above $72.78 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Spot Natural Gas futures moved above intermediate resistance at $2.55 per MMBT completing a double bottom pattern.
Synopsys $SNPS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $392.79 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Take Two $TTWO a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $128.30 extending an intermediate uptrend. Reported higher than consensus quarterly results.
Gold ETN $GLD moved below intermediate support at $149.91.
Gold equities followed the trend of gold prices. Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM a TSX 60 stock completed a double top pattern on a move below US$48.20. Franco-Nevada $FNVa TSX 60 stock moved below intermediate support at US$149.91.
South Africa iShares $EZA moved below $38.59 extending an intermediate downtrend. Influenced by the price of gold.
Fortis $FTS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below intermediate support at Cdn$58.38.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 18th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May18th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 18th 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for positive seasonal ratings: www.equityclock.com
Links offered by valued providers
Real risk of rate hike in July: Financial Post: Benjamin Tal (05 18 23)
Real risk of rate hike in July – YouTube
On The Brink Of A Major Breakout | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (05.18.23)
On The Brink Of A Major Breakout | Tom Bowley | Trading Places (05.18.23) – YouTube
Opportunities In Crude Oil | Chris Kimble | Your Daily Five (05.18.23)
Opportunities In Crude Oil | Chris Kimble | Your Daily Five (05.18.23) – YouTube
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 3.20 to 50.20. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer advanced 3.80 to 51.40. It remains Neutral.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.17 to 48.71. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer dropped 2.16 to 56.47. It remains Neutral.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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May 19th, 2023 at 3:56 pm
Bman/Van,
Re your post yesterday on Canadian financials. I see a triangle on the banks but also a potential head and shoulders top. (Emphasis on “potential”). In other words, I don’t see a clear trend.
Here is an old chart of Ron/BC’s to which I have added the triangle lines. Sorry, I don’t follow BNS.
https://schrts.co/hCKgZJTF
May 19th, 2023 at 5:29 pm
Thanks Paula. Appreciate your view given the potential technical setup. Feels like we might get resolution the technical in the next month as both setups are nearing then ends.
May 21st, 2023 at 12:36 pm
Paula
I traded ZEB.to awhile back right when Jamie Dimon said we were still going to have a banking crisis. I bailed out of ZEB.to and luckily made $68,lol. Still don’t like the chart pattern overall. Here is the chart again only a two year chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25966331206&a=1417044697
May 21st, 2023 at 3:44 pm
Ron/BC,
I recall that you traded ZEB not that long ago and made some coffee money LOL Thanks for the longer term chart view. Always good to zoom out for a bigger perspective.
Of the Cdn banks, I think you did like TD but maybe that short term trade is over now. It seems to be trading in a narrow trading range, maybe waiting for something to happen?
May 22nd, 2023 at 1:53 am
Hey Paula
Here is a chart of TD.to with the ZEB.to overlaid to show relative performance.
“IF” price can clear 84 it should shoot up to 87 easily and quickly looking at the chart. The seasonal trend in June and July aren’t that great though. I’ve found the last year very choppy and unpredictable and tend to be glad I didn’t buy much of anything. Just bought a bunch more GICs at 4.80% so now I have most of my money in GICs and also in TFSAs. I just hope I haven’t put “too much money” in the TFSAs that I’m allowed or the feds will fine me 1% per month on the amount over done. I won’t say what I think of that……………………..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05861874852&a=673066261
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=TD.TO