Tech Talk for Monday April 1st 2024

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 1st

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

June Gold futures gained another $26.80 to US$2,254.80 per ounce in pre-opening trade.

clip_image001

Tesla added $1.20 to $176.99 after the company raised the price of its Model Y car in the United States by $1,000.

clip_image002[1]

United Parcel Services advanced $2.75 to $151.38 after reaching an air cargo deal to expand its United States Postal Service Partnership.

clip_image002[2]

FedEx dropped $5.94 to $283.80 after the company confirmed expiry of its contract with United States Postal Services on September 29th.

clip_image003

 

The Bottom Line

World equity markets were mixed last week, typical when intermediate momentum indicators are overbought: U.S. equity indices moved in a narrow trading range. S&P 500 Index gained 0.39% and the NASDAQ Composite Index slipped 0.30%. ETFs representing European, Canadian and Merging Markets were slightly higher. ETFs representing Far East markets were slightly lower

Finally, an all-time inter-day high for the TSX Composite Index! High for the Index on Thursday was 22,220.91, beating the previous all-time high at 22,213.07set on April 5th 2022.

Most of the upside action last week occurred in the Commodity sector, led by gold. Strength in the sector was recorded despite strength in the U.S. Dollar Index.

February Core PCE Price Index released on Friday morning is expected to have a mixed impact on U.S. equity markets on Monday. Consensus was a year-over-year increase of 2.8%. Actual was an increase of 2.8%.

 

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies

Source: www.FactSet.com

Analysts slightly increased earnings estimates and slightly reduced revenue estimates for the first quarter of 2024. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 3.6% (versus a 3.4% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 3.5% (versus a 3.6% increase last week).

Earnings gains accelerate in the second and third quarters. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.4% earnings increase (versus a 9.3% increase last week) and a 4.6% increase in revenues (versus a 4.7% increase last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.5% increase in earnings (versus a previous 8.4% increase) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.1% increase).

Impressive earnings gains were lowered for the fourth quarter. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for an 11.0% increase in earnings (versus a previous 17.4% increase) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.8% increase).

For all of 2024, consensus calls for an 11.0% increase in earnings (versus a previous increase of 10.9%) and a 5.0% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.1% increase)

Estimates for fiscal 2025 were raised slightly. Consensus calls for a 13.4% earnings increase (versus previous 13.3% increase) and a 6.0% revenue increase (versus a previous 5.9% increase).

Economic News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

March U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.5% versus a decline of 0.2% in February

March ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase to 48.5 from 47.8 in February.

February U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 1.0% versus a decline of 0.8% in January.

March ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to slip to 52.5 from 52.6 in February.

February U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to ease to $66.50 billion from $67.40 billion in January.

February Canadian Trade is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday

March U.S. Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to drop to 198,000 from 275,000 in February. March Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from February at 3.9%. March Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in February. On a year-over- year basis, March Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 4.1% versus a gain of 4.3% in February.

Canadian March Employment Change released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to gain 20,000 versus a gain of 40,700 in February.

 

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

clip_image002


Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 28th 2024

clip_image004

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 28th 2024

clip_image006

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 28th 2024

clip_image008

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

 

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

 

Changes Last Week

clip_image010


Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for March 30th

Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

 

Germans About to Legalize Pot: Mark Leibovit

Achtung Baby! Germans About to Legalize Pot – HoweStreet

 

S&P 7000 by end of 2024?! Dave Keller and David Hunter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMKSWU-c1oU

 

Best Start to a Year for Stocks since 2019: Buy Adami, Dan Nathan, Carter Worth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EI_wTzxN8Ao

 

Stock Picks Poised For Success: Danielle Shay

Stock Picks Poised For Success – YouTube

 

I’d Rather Be A Bull with David Rosenberg |

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-f9LoRwpIQ

 

An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum: Arthur Hill

An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum | Art’s Charts | StockCharts.com

 

Core PCE Data Has Powell Pleased – May Set Tone For Q2: Mary Ellen McGonagle

Core PCE Data Has Powell Pleased – May Set Tone For Q2 | The MEM Edge | StockCharts.com

 

One Month of Positive Seasonality Remaining — OBV Says, "Maybe Not." Carl Swelin

One Month of Positive Seasonality Remaining — OBV Says, "Maybe Not." | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com

 

Low VIX: Warning Sign for Bear Market? Tom Bowley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLNL-lmgUas

 

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – March 30, 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_K09cdAqaM

 

Stock Markets First Quarter a Near Record High: Bob Hoye

Stock Markets First Quarter a Near Record High – HoweStreet

 

Trading Desk Report For March 30, 2024: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Report For March 30, 2024 – HoweStreet

 

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Bridge-disruption-weather-events-geopolitical-concerns-market-highs-living-cycle-persistent-inflation.pdf

 

Technical Notes for Thursday

Mexico iShares $EWW moved above $69.39 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image011

Russell 2000 iShares $IWM moved above $209.88 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image012

S&P Oil & Gas Exploration SPDRs $XOP moved above $152.24 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image013

Chevron $CVX an S&P 100 stock moved above $152.24 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image014

Bank of Nova Scotia $BNS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$69.71 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image015

Agnico-Eagle $AEM a TSX 60 stock moved above US$59.22 and Cdn$80.29 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image016

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

clip_image017

The intermediate term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and gained 8.40 last week to 85.20. It remains Overbought.

clip_image018

The long term Barometer gained 1.40 on Friday and advanced 5.00 to 85.30 last week, a 33 month high. It remains Overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

clip_image019

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 1.79 on Friday, but gained 2.23 last week to 72.32. It remains Overbought.

clip_image020

The long term Barometer added 2.23 to 75.89 on Friday and gained 4.80 last week to 75.89. It remains Overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




6 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday April 1st 2024”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    BCE – Down 38.4% from its’ high in April 2022. At $45 its’ never been lower in over 10 years. Forward div of 8.58% with some concern about whether it can be sustained. I’m wondering if this is a buy if it gets down around $43-44. Target prices put out in Feb range from $51 to $57. Looking at the lowest target price the div and capital appreciation combined at present prices adds up to 20%. If we get a market pull-back I would watch how BCE’s share price behaves relative to the rest of the market. Right now BCE is one of the biggest falling knives around which calls for a strong stomach and patience if you want to buy and hold. Theoretically BCE as a bond proxy should rise if and when we get rate cuts. I’m curious if anyone else is looking at BCE.

  2. Neil/ON Says:

    BCE looks very interesting right now, I usually buy when dividend stocks get hammered. There was a G&M article a few weekends ago about BCE possibly cutting the dividend or just doing very little dividend increases going forward. Also, shares of Telus have been beaten down of late.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a 10 year chart of BCE. Price has reacted above and below the $34 mark the last few years and that is where price is presently with the RSI 8 oversold. It is also at the support line of the Descending Triangle as well. Not the best chart to buy off of but something to think about.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66460689773&a=1645665450

    The Seasonal Trend chart is bullish in May,June and July.

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=BCE

    As always draw your own conclusions……………..

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a 10 year Weekly chart of Telus.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T.TO&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14600738541&a=1645675122

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=T.TO

  5. Paula Says:

    Here is my weekly chart of BCE.TO. It’s slightly different than Ron/BC’s US version:

    https://schrts.co/HGSyJTgP

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    Thanks everyone for your comments and charts. I’m just going to keep an eye on it and wait for it to show definite signs of putting in a bottom. Overall there are plenty of other things you can put your money in right now.

Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in