Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 6th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 22 points at 8:30 AM EDT.
WTI crude oil advanced $0.79 to $78.89 after Saudi Arabia raised prices on crude oil shipped to Europe and Asia.
Freshpet added $9.42 to $119.00 after reporting a surprising first quarter revenue and profit gain.
TreeHouse Foods dropped $1.26 to $36.00 after reporting a first quarter loss
Spirit Airlines slipped $0.02 to $3.69 after reporting a wider than expected first quarter loss.
The Bottom Line
The Fabulous Four (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta) dominated technical action by broadly based U.S. equity indices last week. Higher than consensus quarterly results by these dominant companies prompted analysts to increase significantly first quarter earnings and revenues estimates for the S&P 100 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index. Their strong earnings gains are expected to continue, but at a lower than previous rate during the remainder of 2024.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies
Source: www.FactSet.com
Higher than consensus first quarter results released to date prompted analysts again to increase significantly their first quarter earnings estimates. Eighty Percent of S&P 500 companies have reported to date. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 5.0% (versus a 3.5% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 4.1% (versus a 4.4% increase last week).
Earnings gains accelerate in the second and third quarters, but at a slower than previous rate. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.6% earnings increase (versus 9.7% last week) and a 4.5% increase in revenues (versus a 4.4% increase last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.4% increase in earnings (versus previous 8.6% increase) and a 4.8% increase in revenues (versus a previous 4.9% increase).
Earnings gains continue in the fourth quarter. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.8% increase in earnings and a 5.4% increase in revenues (versus previous 4.9%)
For all of 2024, consensus calls for an 11.0% earnings increase (versus previous 10.8% increase) and a 4.9% increase in revenues.
Earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 were lowered. Consensus calls for a 9.5% earnings increase (versus previous 13.9% increase) and a 5.8% revenue increase.
Economic News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Canada’s April Employment Report is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday.
May Michigan Consumer Sentiment is released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday
Selected Earnings News This Week
Source: www.Investing.com
Fifty six S&P 500 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week (including one Dow Jones Industrial Average company: Walt Disney)
Six TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 3rd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 3rd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 3rd 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
The BULL Case for BITCOIN: David Keller and Adrian Zduńczyk
The BULL Case for BITCOIN – YouTube
Key Breadth Indicator Flashes Buy Signal for Nasdaq 100: David Keller
Key Breadth Indicator Flashes Buy Signal for Nasdaq 100 – YouTube
The Bull Case for Buffett’s Biggest Holding: Apple David Keller
The Bull Case for Buffett’s Biggest Holding | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com
Is this a Dead-Cat Bounce or a Bounce with Legs? Arthur Hill
Is this a Dead-Cat Bounce or a Bounce with Legs? | Art’s Charts | StockCharts.com
Money Talks with Michael Campbell May 4th editions
Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
Why the TD Bank Could be Fined $100’s of Millions: Bob Hoye
Why the TD Bank Could be Fined $100’s of Millions – HoweStreet
US Marijuana Stocks Going Sky High: Mark Leibovit
US Marijuana Stocks Going Sky High – HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes For May 4, 2023: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes For May 4, 2023 – HoweStreet
Key Breadth Indicator Flashes Buy Signal for Nasdaq 100: David Keller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmrEtbTgMwM&t=131s
NVIDA is Setting Up To SURGE: Mary Ellen McGonagle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Qxk1Ai7aBQ
Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com
Technical Scores
Calculated as follows:
Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2
(Higher highs and higher lows)
Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0
(Not up or down)
Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2
(Lower highs and lower lows)
Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2
Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0
Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2
Above 20 day moving average: Score 1
At 20 day moving average: Score: 0
Below 20 day moving average: –1
Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1
Mixed momentum indicators: 0
Down trending momentum indicators: –1
Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.
Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes for Friday
Far East equity indices and related ETFs continued moving higher. Hong Kong iShares $EWH moved above intermediate resistance at $16.92,
Corn ETN $CORN moved above $20.44 and $20.69 completing a double bottom pattern. Soybean and Wheat prices also moved significantly higher during the week.
U.S. Aerospace & Defense iShares $ITA moved above $132.27 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Apple $AAPL a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $178.36 and $178.67 resuming an intermediate uptrend.
Telus $T.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$22.42 completing a double bottom pattern.
Magna International $MG.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$63.32 extending an intermediate downtrend. The company announced less than consensus first quarter results and lowered guidance for 2024.
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 2.20 on Friday, but dropped 3.40 last week to 43.40. It remains Neutral.
The long term Barometer added 1.20 on Friday, but dropped 1.80 last week. It remains Overbought
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 4.91 on Friday and gained 5.35 last week to 60.71. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a recovery above 60.00.
The long term Barometer slipped 0.45 on Friday and eased 0.44 last week. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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May 7th, 2024 at 7:32 am
Hi Ron,
About your GIC comment I haven’t held a gic in years but I do believe in money market. as I can invest when I want and currently cash.to pays 5%