Tech Talk for Tuesday June 20th 2023

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday June 20th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 12 points at 8:30 AM EDT

TSX Capped REIT iShares moved below Cdn$16.20 yesterday extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Intel gained $0.18 to $36.55 after announcing a $33 billion plan to build two plants in Germany.

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PayPal added $1.07 to $67.50 after announcing plans to increase its share buyback program from $4 billion to $5 billion.

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DICE Therapeutics jumped $12.99 to $46.84 after Eli Lilly announced purchase of the company in a deal valued at $2.4 billion.

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EquityClock’s Daily Comment

Headline reads “Mean reversion among asset classes may provide an opportunity in two favoured seasonal trades before the quarter comes to a close”.

http://www.equityclock.com/2023/06/17/stock-market-outlook-for-june-20-2023/

 

The Bottom Line

Changes in currencies are having an important impact on equity and commodity prices. The U.S. Dollar Index and its related Exchange Traded Note (Symbol: UUP) moved significantly lower following news on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve that it plans to maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% for now. In response, world currencies and commodities priced in U.S. Dollars moved significantly higher, led by strength in grain prices and the Canadian Dollar.

 

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies

Source: www.Factset.com

Earnings and revenue estimates for remainder of the year were unchanged from last week. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a drop of 6.4% in earnings and a drop of 0.4% in revenues. Consensus for the third quarter calls for an increase of 0.8% in earnings and a 1.2% increase in revenues. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for an 8.2% increase in earnings and a 3.2% increase in revenues. For all of 2023, consensus calls for an increase of 1.2% in earnings and a 2.4% increase in revenues.

Earnings and revenue growth continues beyond the fourth quarter of 2023. Consensus for 2024 calls for a 12.3% increase in earnings and a 4.9% increase in revenues.

 

Economic News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

May U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1.405 million units from 1.401 million units in April.

Canadian May Retail Sales are released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gives testimonies to Congress at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday and Thursday.

May U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 4.24 million units from 4.28 million units in April.

 

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

Quiet week! Focus is on FedEx, a leader in the Transportation sector

selected earnings june20

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 16th 2023

spx june 20

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 16th 2023

crb june 20

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 16th 2023

xlk june 20

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for positive seasonal ratings: www.equityclock.com

 

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

 

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

 

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

 

Changes Last Week

changes june 20


Seasonality Chart of the Day

Technical profile for JP Morgan Chase improved on Friday when the stock moved above $143.37 extending an intermediate uptrend. See price chart below.

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Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of June 22 and a Sell Date of November 11 has resulted in a geometric average return of 4.5% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 20 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 15 of those periods. This is a good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 20 years by an average of 3.15% per year.

 

Technical Notes on Friday

JP Morgan Chase $JPM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $143.37 extending an intermediate uptrend. Technical score is 2+0+1+1= 4

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Global X Infrastructure ETF $PAVE moved above $30.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index contributed to strength in U.S. grain prices and their related Exchange Traded Notes and Exchange Traded Funds

Wheat ETN $WEAT moved above intermediate resistance at $6.69.

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Corn ETN $CORN moved above intermediate resistance at $25.64

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Soybean ETN $SOYB moved above intermediate resistance at $27.54.

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Agriculture ETF $DBA moved above $21.37 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Other Agriculture ETFs also advanced smartly last week, included MOO and COW.TO.

 

Links offered by valued providers

Close relationship between S&P 500 and Fed Liquidity

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-incredible-chart-shows-the-close-relationship-between-the-s-p-500-and-fed-liquidity-166542a7?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_pushly&send_date=20230619

Michael Campbell’s Money Talks for June 17th

Michael Campbell’s MoneyTalks – Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

 

A Chilling Comparison of 2023 To 1999 | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.15.23)

A Chilling Comparison of 2023 To 1999 | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.15.23) – YouTube

 

Big stock market rally to be followed by ‘big collapse,’ says BofA’s Hartnett

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-stock-market-rally-to-be-followed-by-big-collapse-says-bofas-hartnett-27c15a2d?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_pushly&send_date=20230616

 

Stock market could face $150 billion headwind from rebalancing sales: JPM

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-could-face-150-billion-headwind-from-rebalancing-sales-jpm-8b14517c?mod=mw_more_headlines

 

US Dollar Rolls Down Greg Schnell June 16, 2023 at 12:53 PM

US Dollar Rolls Down | The Canadian Technician | StockCharts.com

 

Three Charts Show Bear Case for Technology David Keller June 16, 2023 at 08:44 PM

Three Charts Show Bear Case for Technology | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

 

Major Indexes Have Reached Bull Market Participation Levels Carl Swenlin June 15, 2023

Major Indexes Have Reached Bull Market Participation Levels | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com

 

Overextended Market Whimpers Into Weekend | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.16.23)

Overextended Market Whimpers Into Weekend | David Keller, CMT | The Final Bar (06.16.23) – YouTube

 

Bob Hoye: June 16, 2023 | Stock Markets Showing Technical Excesses

Stock Markets Showing Technical Excesses – HoweStreet

 

Mark Leibovit: June 15, 2023 | Summer Solstice Could See Change in Markets

Summer Solstice Could See Change in Markets – HoweStreet

 

AI Winners & Losers from Mark Bunting and www.uncommonsenseinvestor.com

AI Winners & Losers – Uncommon Sense Investor

 

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Tech-power-inversion-warning-sentiment-drags-good-jobs-unsupported-scaremongers-interesting-laggards.pdf

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

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The intermediate term Barometer added 2.40 on Friday and 13.00 last week to 70.20. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend remains up.

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The long term Barometer added 0.20 on Friday and 8.20 last week to 65.60. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend remains up.

 

TSX Momentum Barometers

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Intermediate Barometer dropped 3.45 on Friday, but added 1.72 last week to 37.93. It remains Oversold.

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The long term Barometer added 0.86 on Friday and 1.30 last week to 52.16. It remains Neutral.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed




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