Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 4th
Index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 8 points at 8:35 AM EDT.
Index futures were unchanged following release of July Non-farm Payrolls released at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus calls for an increase of 184,000 versus a gain of 209,000 in June. Actual was an increase of 187,000. Consensus calls for the July Unemployment Rate to be unchanged from June at 3.6%. Actual was 3,5%.. Consensus calls for July Average Hourly Earnings to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.4%
The Canadian Dollar was unchanged at US74.78 cents following release of Canada’s July employment report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 25,000. Actual was a drop of 6,400. Consensus for the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 5.5%. Actual was 5.5%
Amazon.com advanced $8.10 to $137.01 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0011-2.png "clip_image001[1]")
Apple dropped $3.45 to $187.64 after reporting less than consensus quarterly revenues.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0021-2.png "clip_image002[1]")
Monster Beverages dropped $1.50 to $56.49 after reporting less than consensus second quarter revenues.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0031-2.png "clip_image003[1]")
Booking Holdings advanced $317.09 to $3150.00 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter revenues and earnings.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/clip_image0041-2.png "clip_image004[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Comment
Headline reads “While the trend of aggregate factory orders remains impressive, consumer goods orders just recorded the weakest first half of the year performance, outside of the pandemic, on record”.
http://www.equityclock.com/2023/08/03/stock-market-outlook-for-august-4-2023/
Technical Notes
ANSYS $ANSS a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $317.25.
PayPal $PYPL a NASDAQ 100 stock moved below intermediate support at $65.62
NextEra $NEE an S&P 100 stock moved below $70.85 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Pfizer $PFE a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved below $34.96 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Cognizant Technology $CTSH a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $70.23 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Fortis $FTS.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$54.96 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Metro $MRU.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$69.61 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Dollarama $DOL.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$85.01 completing a double top pattern.
Restaurant Brands International $QSR.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below Cdn$98.68 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Shopify $SHOP.TO a TSX 60 stock moved below intermediate support at Cdn$80.36.
U.S. Treasury 7-10 year Treasury Bond iShares moved below $94.12 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Trader’s Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 3rd 2023
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Links offered by valued providers
VIX Breaks Out as NASDAQ Selloff Accelerates | Trading Places (08.03.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUkFbMBhI6s
Growth Stocks Are PLUNGING Now? Blame Fitch Downgrade! | The Final Bar (08.02.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0o1Zna-Pl4
Fitch Downgrade Sends TLT Closer to Target Set Months Ago | Halftime by Chaikin Analytics (08.03.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvLcvvqk5XE
Why the MACD Pinch Play is so Valuable | Stock Talk (08.03.23)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LVyjjrT5nw
Does A BIG Changing of the Guard Signal More Trouble for Tech Stocks? | GoNoGo Charts (08.03.23)
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped another 7.20 to 66.20. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped another 2.80. It remains Overbought. Daily downtrend was extended.
TSX Momentum Barometers
The long term Barometer dropped another 3.07 to 52.19. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
The long term Barometer dropped another 1.75 to 50.88. It remains Neutral. Daily downtrend was extended.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 4th, 2023 at 10:30 am
Pretty quiet here. Everyone must be either at a cottage or on vacation.
Energy – Keeps making new highs. Among banks TD is holding up really well. EQB is in a class of its’ own. If it ever drops substantially JPM would be a great one to load up on but I doubt there is any lack of new money that is waiting for something like that.
August 4th, 2023 at 5:13 pm
Hi Larry
Agree with you (as I am on vacation) that everyone is enjoying the sun.
Thinking that we are going to get a pullback on the TSX back to 19,200-19,400 (although will have to see if this lvl holds). While TD has been the outperformer for banks, not sure it will remain unscatched and could pull back the the $78 lvl (which would be a good buying opportunity). That will still be outperformance as suspect the other big banks (CM, BNS, BMO and RY) will be hitting new 52 week lows.
Energy is a real wild card, we still are in a energy crisis and light on production supply due to OPEC+ management. However, will this be able to overcome a market correction. Kind of hoping energy also goes down providing and excellent buying opportunity for the fall. Bullish oil will run in 2nd half with China economy improving along with supply management from OPEC+.
Thanks
August 5th, 2023 at 1:09 am
Here is a long term chart of WTI. Click the SEASONALITY link that shows that August & September are the two worst months of the year for WTI historically. But as always,draw your own conclusions.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30511830103&a=1123276315
https://schrts.co/CRBiqfCd
August 5th, 2023 at 6:24 pm
Ron/BC
NTR
I hit the PXG irons, hybrids, fairway woods and Driver. Very impressed. I’m sold on them. My next set will probably by PXG’s
August 6th, 2023 at 1:17 am
Dave/AB
I have a set of COBRA BIO clubs and like them. Never tried other brands though other than the odd club I’ve bought to try. I bought them about 9 years ago when my new partner encouraged me to start golfing. I added a big driver but oddly enough a 3 or 5 wood or even a hybrid works just as well if I hit the ball correctly. I often go to U-Tube and watch some professional golfers teach a particular style of driving or chipping or putting. Interesting stuff…………………..Always something to learn.
August 6th, 2023 at 9:24 am
The weekly chart for West Texas Intermediate ($WTI) continues to look encouraging. There is positive divergence on multiple indicators and the strength of $WTI relative to the $SPX has recently turned positive. One fly in the ointment is that the price is now at the top of it’s trading range. A pullback for the next few weeks would not be surprising.
https://schrts.co/tAiqHQAe
August 6th, 2023 at 2:36 pm
Have to agree that there is major resistance for WTI a bit over $83. Take note that the Biden Administration was so concerned about juicing energy prices that they withdrew their bid to purchase 6 mil barrels last week to replenish the SPR. Longer term the need to replenish it is a support.
Equity Clock has been posting very convincing analysis calling the SPX top at 4,600 and pointing out waning momentum leading into the Aug/Sep period. I would have to agree that when the whole market sells off everything gets hit but some less than others and then you have to account for new money that is waiting for any dip to come in. Hard to call how far it goes. Value is what I am looking for.